NFL Week 4 Picks

NFL

I can't believe we're about to reach the quarter pole of the NFL season already. Parity is at an all time high in the league, and every week it seems like another "contender" loses to a team it has no business losing to. Looking at the schedule, this is one of the weakest slate of games so far this season. Let's get on to the Week 4 Picks

Last Week 3-2-1
Season: 10-4-2
Locks of the Week: 0-2-1
HOME TEAM in Caps

1) FALCONS -7 over Panthers

LOCK OF THE WEEK: The Falcons offense is on fire right now. Matty Ice has taken the step up, and is one of the best quarterbacks in the league (having Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez doesn't hurt). The Panthers are coming off a long rest after being picked apart by the Giants on Thursday. Cam Newton is getting careless with the football, and he can't afford to give Atlanta any extra possessions.

2) Giants +1.5 over EAGLES 

The G-Men should have Hakeem Nicks back for this matchup, and they may not need Ahmad Bradshaw with the way Andre Brown ran against the Panthers. The Eagles could easily be 0-3 right now, and their offensive line is getting Michael Vick killed. The Giants defense is brutal when it smells blood.

3) Bears +3.5 over COWBOYS

Both of these teams have been inconsistent this season. Jay Cutler looks like a different quarterback when teams are able to blitz him. It looks like Matt Forte will be back for this game, and they'll have the two-headed attack with him and Michael Bush. The Cowboys are giving up a stingy 137 passing yards per game, but are getting torched for 113 yards a game on the ground. This plays right into Chicago's strength.

4) Redskins +3 over BUCS

RG3 has kept Washington in every game this season, and I'd be shocked if they lost in Tampa. The Bucs have an average defense, but their offense is struggling to put points on the board.

5) Raiders +6 over BRONCOS

There is something up with Gym (Peyton) Manning Laundry, whether it's the offensive line, struggling with a new system, or just the fact that he hasn't played in over a year following neck surgery. Darren McFadden is started heating up against the Steelers, and if the Raiders offense can keep the ball out of Peyton's hands they should win this game.

Jets

In a split second the faith of the Jets season took a dramatic turn for the worst. Late in the third quarter of Sunday's game against the Dolphins, Darelle Revis cut and his knee buckled. Jets fans hoped it wasn't a torn ACL, but Rex Ryan confirmed our worst fears on Monday announcing that Revis Island is closed for the season. 

In the Rex Ryan administration this is the first major injury we are going to have to overcome. This hurts worse than Kris Jenkins' injury, and all of Chad Pennington's shoulder problems. Vinny Testaverde's achilles tear will always be the worst injury in Jets history because we were Super Bowl contenders in the 1999 season. At best the 2012 Jets were a Wild Card team that could possibly win a playoff game.

You also have to look in the future a little bit, and it is fair to speculate if Darelle Revis  played his last game as a Jet. Woody Johnson and Mike Tannenbaum didn't want to pay him Namdi Asomugah money when he was healthy, they certainly aren't going to give that to him now coming off an ACL tear. Before the 2010 season Revis signed a patchwork contract just to end his pre-season long hold out and play the opening game. Depending on whom you believe, they were supposed to work on a long term deal before this season (the more I see from Mike T the more I think of him as a conniving rat). Obviously that didn't happen, and you have to believe he's going to prove he's healthy next season before getting paid. You have to look no further to our JetLife Stadium neighbors to see how dangerous an ACL tear is to a corner. Terrell Thomas' career may be over after re-injuring his knee this training camp.

Back to reality now, as the Jets have a tough test in front of them this Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers. San Fran is considered the team to beat in the NFC, with a swarming defense and a good running game (kind of like the 2009 Jets). 

When the Jets Have the Ball

The fact of the matter is this Jets offense isn't very good. Sanchez is an average quarterback, but he doesn't have enough help around him. Shonn Greene (2.8 yard per carry) is good at wearing defenses down, but he doesn't put fear in the defenses that have to play the Jets. Rex Ryan admitted that he was thinking of giving Bilal Powell (4.0 ypc) more carries starting this week. 

It is looking like we may see the return of Dustin Keller, who has battled a hamstring injury that occurred in the pre-season. Keller and Sanchez have good chemistry, and he is our check down receiver, so getting him back is a huge positive. Santonio Holmes had a breakout game in Miami, and if his heart is really back in the right place (and that's a big question mark) then we should see more of the same with him. Jeremy Kerley is proving to be our big play guy. He doesn't catch a lot of balls, but is great in open space. Stephen Hill may not play because of a hamstring injury. Hill was kept off the box score in the last two games after having a breakout debut game.

The 49ers have a great front seven, led by Justin Smith and Patrick Willis. They will be able to put pressure on Sanchez, and usually that spells trouble for #6. San Fran's stats are a little skewed because they've allowed Green Bay and Detroit to move the ball in the 4th quarter once they were up a couple scores. You have to think they're going to be firing on all cylinders after losing to the Vikings last week.

When the 49ers Have the Ball

The Jets defense has been disappointing this season, even before the loss of Darelle Revis. It is going to be interesting to see if Rex calls for more exotic blitzes to help hide the fact that are secondary is considerably weaker now. San Fran's offense isn't anything special, but they are efficient. Their running game is ranked 7th in the league, led by Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter. The Jets run D has been torched this season, and our front seven has been pushed around by Miami and Buffalo.

Alex Smith is an average quarterback and has improved tremendously under coach Jim Harbaugh. After averaging about an interception a game in his first five seasons, he has only thrown 6 picks in 19 games under Harbaugh. The 49ers don't throw the ball to their wide receivers a lot, so the loss of Revis doesn't hurt us too much in this game. The Jets upgraded at their safety position in the offseason for games like this one. LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell are going to be asked to stop Vernon Davis who has 13 catches for 169 and 4 touchdowns this season.

Prediction

Hide the women and children, because this one is going to be ugly. I frankly don't see the Jets putting up much of a fight against a team that is coming off an embarrassing loss to Minnesota last week.

49ers 27  Jets 7

UFC

On Saturday night Jon Jones came the closest in his UFC career to losing a fight in the Octagon (not counting the questionable disqualification). Vitor Belfort locked on an armbar, and he had it in tight, but the champion showed his fighting spirit by refusing to tap. Jones than went on to pick apart Belfort, before getting "The Phenom" to tap out to an americana in the fourth round. Now the question is who is going to to fight Jones next. 

Dana White was upset at Shogun Rua and Lyoto Machida for turning down an opportunity to fight Bones at this pay-per view. Rumored mathups between Machida against Dan Henderson and Rua against Alexander Gustafsson are in the works.  Add in the fact that Chael Sonnen may have trash-talked his way into a third title fight (fans are clamoring for this fight), and there is a log-jam for the the number one contender. Luckily, the news is good that Jones didn't do any significant damage in his arm by refusing to tap. Hopefully we'll see him fight in early 2013. 

UFC 152 crowned the first UFC Flyweight Champion as Demetrious Johnson picked apart Joe Benavidez for the better part of five rounds. Johnson used his tremendous speed to his advantage, and Joe B didn't have an answer. The little guys bring a different style than UFC fans are accustomed to, as some of the fans in Toronto pissed of Dana White by booing. The fight wasn't great, but it was a fun 25 minute battle.

Finally, Michael Bisping had his coming out party, and may have earned a title fight after grinding out a hard-fought win against Brian Stann. Bisping was able to out-wrestle Stann to win a three-round decision. Since losing to Dan Henderson at UFC 100, Bisping is 6-2 (including a controversial loss to Chael Sonnen. He deserves a shot against Anderson Silva just as much as anyone else in the 185 pound division. Plus, he is good at selling fights, and that means more money in Zuffa's pockets.