Draft Day should feel like Christmas Morning for NFL fans around the world, but for Jet fans, it's filled with more anxiety than a fly on the wall of Diana Russini's kitchen. In the famous words of Big Cat, "TJ pull it up!"
No other team can have a video with over 2 million views of a compilation of their worst draft day decisions, but our Gotham City Football Club. The sad part is, the video ends in 1995. It doesn't include Dewayne Robertson, Vernon Gholston, Kyle Wilson, Dee Milliner, Zach Wilson... (Can I stop now?).
The Jets currently hold picks 2, 16, 33, and 44 in the first 2 rounds of the draft, after trades this past season with the Colts and Cowboys; which also has them picking 3 times in the first round in 2027 (I feel the agita coming already).
Pick 2 is between Ohio State Linebacker Arvell Reese and David Bailey, Texas Tech edge rusher. Each pick seems to be guaranteed, depending on which beat report or draftnik you want to believe. As of this writing, David Bailey is the -135 favorite over Reese (+105), on the Draft Kings Sportsbook.
I think there's a thin margin between both players, in Madden ratings (Hi Brick!) they both probably fall in the 84-87 range, but the uncertainty seems to unpack a larger issue with this franchise. Reese is a less polished player with a lower floor and higher ceiling, while the consensus opinion on Bailey is that he'll have a bigger impact in his rookie season.
The Jets kept Aaron Glenn after a disastrous rookie coaching season, and a very tumultuous offseason that saw a complete overhaul of his offensive and defensive coordinators. The prevailing thought is that as a former DC, Glenn is going to be taking full control of his side of the ball while entrusting the offense with veteran Frank Reich. That means the onus will be on AG to get the most out of the second pick, and the front office doesn't have confidence he'll be able to develop Reese if they decide to go with Bailey. Also, with Glenn's 2027 future in doubt, Reese's future can either be as a linebacker or edge rusher, depending on if the future HC goes with a 3/4 or 4/3 defensive scheme.
Honestly, I'm more invested in what the Jets do with their next couple picks, since offense is typically the sexier draft picks. With 35 year old Geno Smith, coming off one of his worst seasons since his career rebounded with Seattle, the only man in the QB room should cause flashing red lights and an alarm bell to be ringing in Florham Park 24/7. That leads us to one of the more controversial picks in this year's draft.
Alabama Quarterback Ty Simpson finished his only year starting for the Crimson Tide with 3,567 yards 28 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. Compare that to the Jets, who had 3 quarterbacks combine for 2,385 yards with 15 touchdowns and 13 picks. After a November 8th game against LSU, Simpson was neck and neck with Fernando Mendoza and Dante Moore as the top prospect in college. Alabama had a 4 game stretch where they beat ranked teams (Georgia, Vanderbilt, Missouri, and Tennessee) on Simpson's back.
Then Bama hit a snag, with Simpson failing to break 200 yards against Eastern Illinois and Auburn, in addition to bad games against Georgia in the SEC Title Game and a CFP loss to Indiana. In what could be revisionist history, it came out that Simpson battled with gastritis that caused him to lose 25 pounds, which coincided with his downturn.
Picking quarterbacks is where GMs earn their keep, as teams only go so far as their QB takes them. Mougey's track record at the position is less than ideal with the choices of Justin Fields (I wish we had a QB that can complete a pass) and Geno. Gang Green has plenty of draft capital the next two years to take a chance here and either pick Simpson at 16 or deal the 33rd pick to move up late in the first round to select him. If all else fails, you still have 3 picks next year to get a QB like Arizona did in 2019 when they took Kyler Murray after drafting Josh Rosen the previous year.
The wide receiver class is deep enough this year, where I don't see a big drop-off between WR 2-6 (Lemon, Tyson, Concepion, Cooper, and Boston). It's almost a lock one of those guys will still be on the board at 33 if you opt to take Simspon at 16 and not risk another team leapfrogging us. Fox Sports currently has the Cardinals, who have the 34th pick, at -200 to take Simpson, with the Jets at second with odds at +280.
Someone pass me the Pepto.
No comments:
Post a Comment