Week 11 Picks

NFL Season 33-28-1

Last Week 3-3

Hit with two of the worst all time bad beats last week, but still finished .500, and 54% overall for the season.

Falcons +3.5 @ Saints

Taysom Hill hahahahahaha. Sean Payton will regret this decision and if I'm being duped by all the reports I'll take the L. 

Patriots -1.5 v Texans

The Pats can run the ball better than almost any other team in the league, and Houston has trouble stopping the run. As much as I hate it, you can never count out the Pats.

Eagles +2.5 @ Browns

This line is fishy. The Browns are one of the worst 6-3 teams in NFL history, and I see Wentz bouncing back after a bad performance against the Giants.

Dolphins -4 @ Broncos

Drew Lock is questionable with a rib injury, and Miami is hitting their stride on both sides of the ball. Give me the better team with the points.

Colts -1.5 v Packers

The square betters are lining up to take Rodgers getting points here, but the sharps know better. Indy is a better team and will control the clock with their three-headed rushing attack.

Rams +4.5 @ Bucs

I think Brady's bedtime is 8 PM since he's looked awful in prime time this season. Tampa has struggled when they play better defenses, and Aaron Donald, Jalen Ramsey and company need a win to keep pace with the Seahawks out west. 

Week 10 Picks - Home Teams Prevail

NFL Season 30-25-1

Last Week 2-4

Browns -4 v Texans

The Texans defense stinks, and I think Cleveland is actually better without Odell. The Browns are also getting Nick Chubb back on Sunday, and should be able to run all over Houston.

Giants +4 v Eagles

I love taking home dogs in divisional matchups. Both New York and Philly know each other well, and typically place close games. The Thursday night a few weeks ago was no exception, and I see this matchup playing out very similar.

Panthers +6 v Bucs

I'm going to keep riding Teddy Bridgewater as an underdog. I like the game better now that McCaffery is out since the line shifted two more points in our favor.

Cardinals -2.5 v Bills

Kyler Murray is putting together an MVP season, and might finish with over 4,000 passing and 1,000 rushing yards. Neither team's defense is playing as well as we expected going into the season, and this game should be a shootout. I just trust Kyler more than Allen to make that one extra play to win. 

Dolphins -1.5 v Chargers

Not going to lie, this line scares me a little. Miami should be at least 3.5 point fIavorites in this situation, but I can't pass it up. If it loses on Sunday then so be it.

Rams -2.5 v Seahawks

The public is still in love with Seattle, but even with Jamal Adams back their defense can't stop a nosebleed. I think the Rams are back in form after a Super Bowl hangover and are well rested off a bye. Sean McVay had an extra week to gameplan some offensive schemes to get Jared Goff cooking. 

Week 9 - Keep the Train Rolling

NFL Season 28-21-1

Last Week 4-2

Another profitable week last week has us up 7 units on the season. It was great watching a Charger collapse being on the opposite side of it for once.

Seahawks -3 @ Bills

The Seahawks are the most entertaining team in the league offensively. Seattle's defense is getting Jamal Adams back this week, and he should be able to spy Josh Allen to prevent any big plays with his feet. I think that should give them enough of an edge to win and cover.

Colts +1.5 v Ravens

I think Indy is one of the more underrated teams in the AFC, and the Ravens didn't look the same last week after LT Ronnie Stanley was injured. Add to that CB Marlon Humphry is out this week with COVID, and I can see the Colts pulling off the upset.

Texans -7 v Jaguars

The Jags are terrible, and Minshew is out Sunday as well. Houston is coming off a bye, and as bad as they've played the first half, the roster is much more talented that Jacksonville.

Raiders +1 @ Chargers

The Chargers and Anthony Lynn are the funniest team in football, and no lead is safe. The Raiders are hard to get a read on since they play so inconsistently. Still, I'm going to ride with them after they upset the Browns last week on the road.

Dolphins +4.5 @ Cardinals

Hand up, I was wrong about Miami last week. Tua didn't need to do much in his debut as the defense and special teams got the Phins out to a large lead. I think the number is too high in this game, and see Miami keeping it within a field goal.

Bucs -4.5 v Saints 

In his Tampa debut, Brady threw two interceptions in a 24-23 loss to the Saints. He's only thrown 2 picks total in the last seven games and is getting comfortable with his weapons and that's a dangerous combo. Tampa sleep walked through 3 quarters on Monday and still came out with a win, and I don't think the Saints are as good as their record.

Week 8 - Tua's Debut and Two Big AFC Divisional Matchups

 NFL Season 24-19-1

Last Week 3-2-1

I was a missed extra point away from another 4-2 week, but I'll take the 1 unit win last week.

Colts -3 @ Lions    

I love the Colts coming off a bye against a Detroit team they're much  better than.

Bengals +7 v Titans

Change his nickname from Joe Cool to Joe Covers. Burrow and the Bengals are 5-2 ATS this season, and I think they get the backdoor here getting a touchdown.

Rams -3.5 @ Dolphins

LA put out a statement against Chicago on Monday, and will now face rookie Tua Tagovailoa in his NFL debut. I see Donald and Ramsey not being so welcoming to the former Alabama star.

Bills -4 v Patriots

If fans were allowed to attend games, Bills Mafia would be going nuts this week. The Pats are reeling with back to back losses, and they don't have Brady to save them. On top of that, Edelman and Harry are out. I can't see how they stay in this game.

Broncos +3 v Chargers

The Chargers are a pesky team, as Justin Herbert has played well his rookie season. That being said, their wins have come against the Bengals and Jaguars. I think the Broncos defense is good enough to keep them in this one and pull off the slight upset.

Steelers +4.5 @ Ravens

I think this is a matchup of two teams trending in opposite directions. The Black and Yellow are playing lights out and they keep the momentum going today.

Week 7 - Road Teams Will Prosper

NFL Season 21-17

Last Week 4-2

Browns -3 @ Bengals

Last time these two teams played, Cleveland ran the ball down the Bengals throats and should've easily covered the 6 point spread. However, Burrow led Cincy to a backdoor cover. Even without Nick Chubb, I don't expect this game to be much different. Everyone's making too big a deal out of Cleveland's loss to the Steelers.

Steelers +1 @ Titans

That leads me to this game. I think the Steelers are legit Super Bowl contenders. I didn't know how Big Ben would look after almost missing the whole 2019 season with an injury, as this is also his first season without Lev Bell and Antonio Brown. So far, the team hasn't lost a step. The Titans losing left tackle Taylor Lewan will be a big factor in this game, since they're throwing his backup into the fire trying to stop TJ Watt.

Panthers +7.5 @ Saints

I'm still riding Sir Purr and the Panthers. The Bears defense bent but didn't break last week, and Teddy Bridgewater still had the ball with a chance to tie the game on the final drive. The public still thinks these are the Saints of the past decade with Drew Brees, and I'll keep fading them in these spots. I'll even sprinkle the moneyline on Carolina as well. 

Seahawks -3.5 @ Cardinals

Seattle is 6-2 after their bye under Russel Wilson. This is a big game for the division, as the Seahawks can extend their lead to 3 games over Arizona with a win. I think the Kyler and the Cards are good, but I see Wilson leading Seattle to a game winning TD on the final drive for the win and cover.

Bucs -4 @ Raiders

The Raiders are just 3-7 after a bye since 2010. After a COVID scare, only one offensive lineman will be out for Vegas, but I'm not sure how the line will play after missing practice most of the week. Brady is getting more comfortable with his weapons in Tampa, and I see them winning this easily. 

Bears +6 @ Rams

The Bears do just enough to win every week, and playing like a team that believes in themselves. The 3-3 Rams have yet to beat a team with a winning record this season, with the only impressive performance coming against Football Team. Give me Big Dick Nick with the points and they may win outright as well. 

For Whom Lev Bell Tolls & Week 6 Picks

"Take a look to the sky just before you die. It's the last time you will."

The 2020 Jets are a comedy, but a bad comedy like Grown Ups, and I wish the season was already over. An injury Darnold inexplicably came back in the same game from, will keep him out a second week (same situation for Mekhi Bechton), so Joe Flacco will once again start for Gag Green. As the season continues to slip away into disaster, it's looking more and more likely that Trevor Lawrence will be the starting QB in 2021 before we even gave Sam a real chance at becoming that franchise QB three years ago. 

On Tuesday night, news broke that the Jets ended their much maligned relationship with running back Lev Bell. Yes, the same Bell that was a 1st team All-Pro three times with the Steelers. Yes, the same Lev Bell that had 1,800 yards from scrimmage for three straight seasons before becoming a Jet. Yes, the same Lev Bell that led the league with 406 touches in 2017. Yes, the same Lev Bell that Mike Maccagnan gave a four-year $52 million deal to last offseason. Yes, the same Lev Bell, that along with CJ Mosley, was going to make the Jets a destination for future big name free agents. Yes, the same Lev Bell, that it was clear soon to be exiled head coach Adam Gase didn't want on his team in the first place.

At the end of the day, the Jets franchise never deserved him. Jetlife Stadium is a place where careers go to die. In 17 games with the Jets, Bell averaged just 3.3 yards per carry, a full yard below his average with the Steelers. Bell has a lot to prove, and I hope he does well with the Chiefs, and gets the ring he wants in February.

So, where does that leave the Jets? As long as Adam Gase is the coach, we'll continue feeding the ball to 40 year old Frank Gore instead of giving rookie LaMichael Perine his fair share of the touches. Perine is one of the few Jets playmakers who has the potential of breaking a play for a touchdown, but we refuse to use him. Luckily, Bell's deal was practically a 2-year deal of guaranteed money, and we'll only take a cap hit of $4 million in 2021. 

I can't take any more disappointment. Goddamn Jets

NFL Season 17-15

Last Week 4-2

Had a good week last week, going 4-2 in my picks. The Steelers gave me a backdoor cover after the Eagles missed a game-tying field goal in the 4th quarter. I'll take the L when picking the Chiefs any day, there will be more profitable days betting for them than against them.

Bengals +7 @ Colts

Joe Burrow took a beating last week against a good Ravens team, and I think the rookie will have a good bounce back spot here against Indy. Phillip Rivers is starting to show his age, as Frank Reich is trying to quiet rumors that he will be making a change at QB. I feel like the Bengals are sneaky good enough to cover the touchdown spread.

Panthers -1 v Bears

Going to ride this Panthers wave, and they're probably my favorite team this year. Robby Anderson is showing the world the superstar that Jet fans knew he would become once he left that hellhole in the Meadowlands.

Falcons +170 ML @ Vikings

Going back to last week, you always take a team after they fire their coach. The Vikings will be without Dalvin Cook this week after a heartbreaking loss Sunday night in Seattle. I think Matty Ice hooks up with Ridley for a pair of touchdowns as the Falcons are ahead after 45 minutes and don't blow it in 4th quarter.

Giants -3 v Redskins

New York is enduring another season of bad football, but I think Ron Rivera and the Football Team are actually trying to tank after benching Dwayne Haskins. Joe Douglas has the Giants fighting for him and if they don't get a win here, I don't know when they'll have their next chance.

Bucs (Pick 'Em) v Packers

75% of bets are on Rodgers and the undefeated Pack, but Vegas has moved the line from -3.5 to a pick'em. This is reverse line movement at it's best kids. Brady had an extra three days to think about his fourth down gaffe, and will have a healthier receiving corps. Take the bet and thank me on Monday.

49ers +3 v Rams

This line stinks. The 49ers got blown out by Miami last week, while the Rams steamrolled the Skins. Yet, the spread is still only 3. When things are too good to be true, they usually are. Give the Sunday night dog.

Week 5 In the League Where They Pay for Play

NFL Season 13-13

Last Week 2-4

Had a bad week last week, the Lions were up 14-0 and the Saints were back ahead two scores before halftime, and Cam Newton was announced as out right after I made my picks. Time for a nice bounce-back in week 5.

Panthers +1 @ Falcons

Teddy Bridgewater and Robby Anderson... what could've been for the Jets. Robby is learning new things every day in Carolina, like Sir Purr is not a bear, but a panther. Matt Rhule has started to turn the Panthers around, while Dan Quinn and the Falcons are trending in the opposite direction. The Falcons secondary is decimated with injuries and I don't see them righting the ship.

Texans -5.5 v Jaguars

If this team doesn't get right after firing Bill O'Brien and facing the Jags I don't know when they're going to win. JJ Watt and Deshaun Watson, the two leaders of the club should ball out.

Steelers -7 v Eagles

I can't see how the Eagles banged up o-line keeps Wentz standing against TJ Watt, Bud Dupree, and the Steelers. Philly got the upset win Sunday night against the banged up Niners while Pittsburgh has an unexpected bye week due to COVID. Take the better team who's rested.

Chiefs -11 v Raiders

I don't like giving the Chiefs too often, since they win almost every week. Patty should pick apart the Raiders secondary. I see KC scoring 35+ on Sunday.

Cowboys - 8 v Giants

The Giants haven't scored a touchdown in two weeks, and their offense might be more inept than the Jets, which is hard to believe. New York hasn't beaten the Boys since December 2016, and I can't see how they buck that trend this week.

Chargers +9 @ Saints

I've always been a believer in Justin Herbert and he's looking great 3 games into his career. We saw a vintage Saints performance last week against a bad Lions team, while LA blew a 3 touchdown lead to Brady and the Bucs. Anthony Lynn has his team playing hard, and I'd even sprinkle some money on the Chargers to win outright.

Week 4 - The Jets Won't Ruin My Sunday

NFL Season 11-9

Last Week 4-4

Colts -2.5 @ Bears

I'm not a believer in Big Dick Nick. Let kids think Santa Clause and Big Dick magic is real,I know the Falcons love blowing 4th quarter leads. Sam Darnold looked clueless against this Colts secondary last weekend, and maybe the ghosts followed him to Indy, since he looked much better against the Broncos last night, or maybe the Colt's secondary is that good.

Raiders +3 v Bills

Bills Mafia will be a the second team to get a taste of the Vegas flu, which could just be coronavirus or chlamydia, I'm not sure. I'll keep picking the Raiders at home until it stops being profitable. I can see this being a letdown spot for Buffalo who is flying high after their exciting win agains the Rams Sunday.

Patriots +7 @ Chiefs

Only an idiot bets against Patty Mahomes two weeks in a row, right? Get my dunce cap ready, as I like what I'm seeing from Cam and the Pats. I think the Chiefs win, but Belichick gets his ground game going and keeps the ball away from Mahomes as much as possible. I'd consider buying a point and getting New England at +8.

Lions +4.5 v Saints

The public is all over the Saints. The black and gold can't lose three straight games, right? Wrong, Vegas hasn't moved the line at all, which means that sharps are backing Stafford and the Lions. I'll side with the sharps every day. 

Browns +4.5 @ Cowboys

The Boys should be 0-3 ATS this season, with only a phantom offensive PI saving them Week 1. The Browns are riding high, and Odell is a notorious Cowboy killer. I think he puts on a show Sunday, and I'd even go Browns ML here. 

49ers -7 v Eagles

Metlife couldn't have been too bad for the Niners as a pee wee team could've won agains the Jets and Giants. Hopefully Shanahan likes his home field better, tough shit, what can I say. Eagles fans screams for Jalen Hurts get louder after another loss. 

Week 3: Desperate Times for 0-2 Teams

NFL Season 7-5

Last Week 3-3

We had two tough breaks last week. The Bengals hit a backdoor cover after Cleveland scored too quickly on their last possession. Then, on Sunday there was a rollercoaster of emotions in the Panthers game. First, they hit the cover with 2 minutes left in the game, before giving up a 45 yard touchdown run to Leonard Fournette. Then, to add insult to injury, the Panthers final drive was stopped inside the Bucs 5 as time expired. 

One thing to keep in mind, Week 3 is historically a good week to bet 0-2 teams, as they are 28-11 ATS since 2014 when playing teams with a win already. You can tell me those teams are 50-0, and I still don't think I can place a wager on Adam Gase however.

Patriots -6 v Raiders

Cam Newton is looking like a superstar again in Bill Belichick's offense. The Vegas Raiders are 2-0, and have been looking much improved. However, for the past two decades, you never bet against the Pats coming off a loss, and I continue that approach here.

Texans +4 @ Steelers

Houston couldn't have had a tougher schedule to start the season, and I still believe in Deshaun Watson. The Steelers are 2-0, but have wins against the Broncos and Giants. I think JJ Watt makes a big play late in the game to win the Watt Bowl over TJ.

Bengals +6.5 @ Eagles

Hopefully the 10 day break is enough to rest Joe Burrow's arm after he was asked to throw 60 TIMES on Thursday. He's had some tough luck targeting AJ Green this season, and I see that turning around against a weak Eagles secondary.

Falcons -3.5 v Bears

This seems like a good bounce-back spot after an embarrassing loss to the Cowboys Sunday. I don't believe in Mitch and think Matty Ice makes enough plays to win. 

Vikings +2.5 v Titans

Trading Stefon Diggs couldn't have broken this team this much, could it? I think we see rookie Justin Jefferson involved a little more and Cousins doesn't throw 3 picks in a half again.

Cardinals -5.5 v Lions

If Kyler keeps this up, he will win the MVP this season. Nuk looks comfortable in this offense and they playing great football. The Lions defense is near the bottom of the league, and I can't see how they stay in this one.

Bonus Picks

We have two marquee prime time matchups this week, and I couldn't resist adding them to the card

Packer +3 @ Saints

Normally, this would be a buy low opportunity on the Saints, but I think it's fair to start wondering if Drew Brees is on his last legs in N'Awlins. The passing offense stalled without Michael Thomas and he'll be out again Sunday night as well. Aaron Rodgers playing like a man possessed after the Pack drafted Jordan Love back in April. 

Ravens -3.5 v Chiefs

This is a big prove me game for Harbaugh and the Ravens. This is their first big test of the early season, and they need to show the world that they are better than the team that lost in the Divisional Round last year.

On Saturday night, Costa will literally be in the cage, as undefeated Paulo Costa battles undefeated champion Israel Adesanya for the Middleweight Championship. In the co-main event, for Jon Jones' vacant Light Heavyweight title, Dominick Reyes battles Jan Blachowicz. I'm not really feeling the excitement for this card, especially coming off a stacked Fight Night card last weekend. 

The main event should be great, but Izzy's last defense against Yoel Romero has left a bad taste in everyone's mouth. The co-main still feels like a #1 Contenders fight to challenge Jon Jones, which isn't fair for Jan and Dominick, but it's hard to ignore the 205 lb elephant in the room. The 3 undercard fights don't really have much heat either.

October's UFC 254 is the stronger of the two PPVs during the second run of Fight Island shows, but it's hard not to feel disappointed we're not getting Tony Ferguson and Dustin Poirier as the co-main event. It's one of the biggest complaints I have with Dana White, is when he rags on his own fighters. 

Pick 5 Challenge 29-30 +$161

This was a tough card to pick winners since there were so many heavy favorites, and I don't like giving up a lot of chalk. I've had some success using a combo parlay, where you throw four heavy favorites in it and it makes up six 2-fight parlays, four 3-fight parlays, and one 4-fight parlay (Pointsbet calls it a Yankee) and $165 gives you $15 bets on all 11 parlay options. 

I think the odds are a little too high on Reyes after he came close to dethroning Jones, and I see value in Jan Blachowicz who will use his 6 years of UFC experience to cap off one of the best runs of his career. I think Izzy has heard the doubters and wants to prove he belongs at the top of the pound for pound rankings. I think he tires Costa down early and gets a finish in the championship rounds.

Ludovit Klein -130 

Zubaira Tukhugov -140

Sijara Eubanks +150

Jan Blachowicz +215

Israel Adesanya by KO/Submission +132

Week 2 - Short and Sweet

NFL Season 4-2

Last Week 4-2

After a good start to the season, we need to keep the wins coming. I'll be sipping some beers beachside this weekend, and won't have a chance to breakdown the picks, but wanted to get them out. Week 2 is a big overreaction week, and we're looking for those lines this week. 

Browns - 6 v Bengals (Thursday)

Giants +5.5 @ Bears

Colts -3 v Vikings

Eagles +1 v Rams

Panthers +9 @ Buccaneers

Raiders +5.5 v Saints (Monday)

NFL Week 1 - It All Begins... Again

 

It's fun betting on bubble basketball and the Yankees, but now the real meat and potatoes of a gambler's life begin. NFL Week 1 is here, and I will help guide you through the bad beats and trap lines all season long with a 6 pack of picks every week. Careful strapping on your face shield, these picks are hot and steamy.

NFL Season 0-0

Last Week 0-0

Redskins Football Team +5.5 v Eagles

A new era begins in Washington, with a new name (for now) and a very good coach in Riverboat Ron. I'm excited to see what Chase Young can do against an Eagles o-line that didn't do a great job protecting Carson Wentz last year. Dwayne Haskins and Terry McLaurin do enough to keep this a field goal game and I like the Football Team getting 5.5.

Falcons +2.5 v Seahawks

Atlanta spent this offseason shoring up their defense, and the addition of Todd Gurley can help ease the burden placed on Matty Ice to carry the offense. I feel like the Falcons offense is quicker on the home turf. Pete Carrol's teams tend to start of a little slower and I think Atlanta takes this one. 

Cardinals +6.5 v 49ers

The Super Bowl hangover is real. The Niners shouldn't be ashamed that they were one of many victims of Mahomes Magic last season, however teams historically haven't done as well coming off a Super Bowl loss. This is a big test early for second year pro Kyler Murray and his new shiny toy DeAndre Hopkins, and they keep this within a touchdown. 

Rams +2.5 v Cowboys

I feel like this is first time in a decade Dallas doesn't get an easy win against the Giants to start their season. Jared Goff and the Rams never got going last season after being a juggernaut in 2018. Sean McVay had an entire offseason to make adjustments and added rookie RB Cam Akers to replace an oft-injured Gurley. The strangeness of this offseason makes it a little more difficult for new head coaches and I see LA glowing under the lights here.

Steelers -6 @ Giants

This one is simple. Danny Turnovers against a hungry defense and the return of Big Ben in the black and yellow. Don't need to overthink it. 

Titans -2.5 @ Broncos

Mike Vrabel and the  Cinderella Titans added Clowney last week to their already strong defense up front, while Denver lost an important cog in stopping Derrick Henry, with Von Miller's season ending injury. I think Drew Lock and the Broncos will be improved this season, but it will take a little longer for Jerry Jeudy to get on board with his QB. 

Turn on the Jets

My expectations for the Jets this season aren't very high. After trading Jamal Adams and losing CJ Mosley due to concerns with the virus, Gregg Williams defense isn't looking as dominant as it was back in April. While we upgraded the offensive line to protect Sam, our decision to not bring in more receivers looks even more damning after injuries in camp weakened an already thin position. 

I like to look at the season in quarters when breaking down the schedule. Call me crazy, but I don't think it would be shocking to see an upset in Buffalo tomorrow. Jets and Bills games are never going to be mistaken for a Chiefs Ravens shootout, and the team who makes that one big play late typically wins. I can see Gang Green getting a win against the Colts or Broncos to start off 2-2.

The Chiefs and Cardinals should easily pick apart our secondary, but the Chargers game is winnable. In the interest of fairness, we'll split with Buffalo to get us at 3-5 at the midway point of the season. The third quarter of the season is where we can really gain some ground. I expect Tua to be starting for Miami by this point, and you don't know what trick Belichick has up his sleeve, but I can't see the Pats replicating their success this season. Best case scenario, I have the Jets at 6-6 going into the stretch.

To start the final quarter of the year, we are paid a visit by Jamal Adams and the Seahawks, in a game both teams have circled on their calendar. I expect the Rams and Browns to be much improved this season and we finish with a visit to Foxboro. Realistically this looks like 1-3, and the Jets finish the season in no man's land at 7-9.

While the playoffs aren't a realistic goal for this season, the most important thing is that we get some answers about what Sam Darnold is. He has shown that he's much better than Geno Smith and Mark Sanchez, but that's not a high pedestal. With quarterbacks getting paid $40 million plus, Joe Douglas needs to see if Sam is in that category in the next two seasons, or if we should build up the rest of the team and try again in the draft without the salary cap burden of a big money QB.

Pick 5 Challenge (27-27 +$305) 

Tonight's UFC card is just sort of there. Knock on wood, but at least it's a full 12 fight card less then 12 hours before the first fight. Next week is the appetizer of Woodley - Covington (plus Cowboy, Chimaev, and Johnny Walker) before the return to Fight Island and the main course of Izzy - Costa at UFC 253. 

Please don't place any real money on the picks this weekend...

UFC Vegas 9/12

Michelle Waterson +100

Ottman Azaitar +108

Roosevelt Roberts -120

Brok Weaver +280

Billy Quarantillo/Andrea Lee -132

The Heavyweight GOAT?

 

Tonight's UFC 252 card is headlined by the rubber fight in the trilogy between Daniel Cormier and Stipe Miocic. DC won by knockout in the first round of their first fight, in July 2018, and Miocic returned the favor by knocking DC out in the fourth round in August 2019 after landing some big body shots later in the fight. These two men have been training to beat each other for two whole years, and the culmination is being tagged as who will be the GOAT in the Heavyweight division. However, this fight doesn't really have the typical big fight feel.

One theory I have is that the hardcore or casual MMA fan both have different reasons to not get excited about tonight's matchup. For the hardcore fans, the long wait for the final fight in the trilogy has soured the matchup. The heavyweight strap was tied up for over two years as a list of contenders and more intriguing matchups began building. Francis Ngannou is looking like a monster again winning four straight fights in a total of 2:42 of ring time. Also, there's always the added drama of if Jon Jones will look to become a champ champ and move up to the division. 

I personally don't believe the winner of this fight becomes GOAT. Cormier is just 4-1 in his UFC career in the division, and while you can't blame him for the timing, Stipe never had to defeat a dominant champion like Cain Velasquez. The Greatest Of All Time, is an ambiguous title, but the nature of the beast of being a heavyweight champ in UFC is that no one has really held the belt long enough to be a GOAT. In all of MMA, no one comes close to Fedor, who never fought for the promotion.

Casual fans don't seem interested in the fight because there isn't any manufactured bad blood and trash talk between the two men. Stipe is a volunteer fire fighter and all around badass, but he doesn't have the charisma needed to reach the next level. Cormier, who is the opposite, and can talk a good game, is still stained by his two losses to Jon Jones in some fans' eyes. DC respects Miocic, and this is more of a professional rivalry than personal. 

When it comes to the X's and O's of the fight, you can make a good case for both men. Miocic is the bigger and younger fighter. He's 5" taller and has a 7 1/2" reach advantage. Stipe also is more heavy handed with 15 career wins by knockout. Meanwhile, Cormier is an NCAA champion and Olympic wrestler. During their four round fight at UFC 241, DC was only able to take Miocic down once in three attempts. Despite that, Cormier landed 162 strikes to Miocic's dome, while Stipe attacked DC's body, landing 27 of 30 attempts.

If Miocic thinks he can eat DC's striking and survive his early onslaught of wrestling he can tire out the contender and turn the tides later in the fight again. I personally don't see that happening. Cormier is a very prideful man and he's been talking all week about how this is a legacy fight for him. As great as his career has been, he lost twice to Jones, won bronze at the Olympics in 2004 and had a weight cutting issue in 2008. I'm a believer in a storybook ending, and I see Cormier walking away from the sport as champ.

In the co-main event, the Sugar Show looks to continue his McGregor like run against Chito Vera. Vera is a step up in competition for the 25-year old phenom, and will be his toughest competition to date in the Octagon. The 27-year old "Chito", is 9-7 in the UFC and has yet to taste defeat by knockout or submission. Sugar has shown in the past that he starts to slow down late in the 2nd round, but he has had over two more years of training since those fights. I think the star train keeps rolling for O'Malley tonight.

JDS, coming off two losses by knockout facing Jairzinho Rozenstruik in another heavyweight banger. This is a good test for the younger fighter who has struggled in his last two contests. Rounding out the pay-per view is wrestling machine Merab Dvalishvili taking on Jon Dodson. Dodson is a gate keeper in the Flyweight division, but has gone 4-5 in his last nine fights. This is a great test to see where Merab, the Longo-Serra, product stands.

While this isn't the flashiest PPV UFC has held, there are enough interesting matchups and storylines to make for a great fight card. 

Pick 5 Challenge (25-25 +$279) Updated 8/28

Check back here in the coming weeks for my Fight Night Predictions. I will say I'm starting to feel a little nervous about Frankie Edgar next week. I still love the guy, but the damage he took during his 13-year UFC career is catching up to him, with his first two career knockout losses occurring in his last four fights. 

UFC 252 (2-3 -$10)

Daniel Cormier -115

Sean O'Malley by KO/TKO +175

Jair Rozenstruik -130

Virna Jandiroba by KO/Submission +190

Jim Miller +115

UFC 8/29 (2-2 +$26)

Anthony Smith +222

Robbie Lawler +205

Ion Cutelaba +260

Maki Pitolo +106

Polyana Viana +120

Adams Unloads on Clueless Joe

Just when I thought you couldn’t be any dumber you do something like this... and totally redeem yourself.

Jamal Adams situation with the Jets is nothing short of a disaster, but after his shoot interview with Manish Mehta yesterday, the safety has me rooting for him again. Adams described Joe Douglas as the bumbling fool that he is. Too bad Adams wasn’t an offensive lineman since the GMs wet dream of having a 53 man roster of only lineman is close to coming true.

In the interview Adams shares his thoughts on Douglas “If they would have just simply said, ‘You know what, Jamal — we’re not going to look to pay you this year, we want to keep adding players — I would have respected that more, I would say, ‘You know what? I respect it. As a man, I get it. I understand it’s a business.’.” He continues “And Why would Joe come out and say, ‘We want to make Jamal a Jet for life?’ Why would you say that and then not even give me an offer?... Don’t B.S. me. I’m a straightforward guy. You don’t have to B.S. me, because I’m going to keep it honest.”

As well as Adam Gase “I don’t feel like he’s the right leader for this organization to reach the Promised Land,” Adams said. “As a leader, what really bothers me is that he doesn’t have a relationship with everybody in the building. At the end of the day, he doesn’t address the team,” Adams added, “If there’s a problem in the locker room, he lets another coach address the team. If we’re playing sh---y and we’re losing, he doesn’t address the entire team as a group at halftime. He’ll walk out of the locker room and let another coach handle it.”

The Jets roster had a lot of holes going into the offseason and Douglas buried his head up his ass and just concentrated on using all our assets to fix the o-line. He alienated the franchise’s second most important piece aside from Sam and I think showed the rest of the team he can’t be trusted. I already was on the fence about Douglas when he didn’t show any effort to bring back Robby Anderson earlier in free agency in spite of his great chemistry with Darnold.

Regardless of where you fall in this situation, these are the facts of where both sides are as of today. Jamal Adams is under contract for 2 more years with the Jets. He can get franchised for two more years after that and still not makes as much as he’s looking for since Safety isn’t a premium position in the NFL. If he doesn’t want to play for the Jets he can sit out and continue to lose money. After his comments in the media it would be awkward if he just shows up to camp next week like nothing happened.

The Jets and Joe Douglas are also in a no win position also. Instead of handling things behind closed doors, the GM will eat his words saying he wanted Adams to be “a Jet for life” giving the expectation that the contract extension was imminent. If we had no intention of signing Adams then we should have traded him before the draft. Now teams around the league know the Jets will need to get rid of him and will be lowballing offers. Also, you’d have to think Jamal’s continued outbursts may also make teams wary of bringing him onboard.

While I sort of respect Adams going full Costanza, maybe using Namath’s jersey as a napkin at B Dubs or dragging the Lombardi Trophy down Route 3, until this situation is resolved it will be a huge distraction for the rest of the team. Douglas needs to act swiftly and take a stand before camp begins next week or this cancer can kill the 2020 season before it begins.

Pick 5 Challenge (18-22 -$416)

Tonight's card is the fourth and final scheduled card during this first run at Fight Island. All things considered it has been an enormous success for the UFC, as Dana and company expect to revisit Yas Island again in the near future. The main event is for a possible title shot against the winner of Adesanya and Costa at UFC 253 in September. Bobby Knuckles should win tonight if he's there mentally. Till is coming off a spilt decision win against Kelvin Gastelum, breaking a two fight skid. Whittaker is looking to get his belt back after Adesanya broke his eight fight winning streak at middleweight.

Not much can be said about Shogun and Lil Nog's trilogy that started 15 years ago in Pride. We are even 5 years removed from the rematch at UFC 190, and nothing makes me think that Minotouro can get his first win against Rua here. This can be the last fight in their careers for both of these legends. Meanwhile, Alexander Gustafsson has returned from a Francesa like retirement to move up to heavyweight to battle former champ Fabricio Werdum. La Cavalo looked sluggish at UFC 249 in May following a two year PED suspension, but the Swede may be overmatched here by the BJJ blackbelt. I'll take the +260 with Werdum as a great value.

Robert Whittaker -135
Shogun Rua -195
Fabricio Werdum +260
Carla Esparza +145
Paul Craig -135
(5-0 +$705)

Fight Island is Real and it’s Spectacular

Dana White continues to show people like that stupid idiot Fauci, who wants everything fun to be cancelled, to stop doubting the UFC. People thought White had gone mad when he brought up Fight Island in April, but tonight we get our tiki torches and our Jimmy Buffet playlist ready as UFC 251 kicks off a string of 4 shows this month from Yas Island. Granted Abu Dhabi isn’t some tropical location like people had in mind, but we have to give the UFC some creative license. It sounds like the organization is planning on alternating between Vegas and Fight Island for the foreseeable future.

UFC 251 took a step back before taking two huge steps forward last week. The scheduled main event of Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns was cancelled last Friday when the challenger tested positive for COVID. Instead, Dana resurrected Street Jesus and Jorge Masvidal is looking to baptize Marty Fakenewsman.

Kamaru Usman is the superior wrestler, but I think the 35-year old Masvidal is on a magical run. His violent stoppages of Darren Till, Ben Askren, and Nate Diaz last year remind me of the career resurgeance Michael Bisping had before his upset of Luke Rockhold to get gold for the first time in 2016. Masvidal has the advantage that every round has to start with both men standing and I think one of Gamebred's shots will turn Usman's lights out.

The co-main event is a rematch of UFC 245's Featherweight Title between Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway. December feels like 5 years ago at this point. Volkanovski used leg kicks to chop down and keep the Hawaiian at bay ending his 14 fight win-streak at 145 pounds. I think Max is just too good of a fighter to not make the necessary adjustments to win tonight. At just 28, Blessed is still in the prime of his career and he'll regain his crown.

The feature fight is also for a strap, as Petr Yan and Jose Aldo battle for the vacant Bantamweight title that Henry Cejudo gave up when he retired. Despite a strong showing in his debut in the weight class, Aldo lost a split decision to Marlon Moraes, but was gifted a title shot at UFC 250, originally scheduled for his native Brazil. After corona shook everything up, Dana still felt like the owed the veteran a title shot.

Petr Yan is 6-0 in the UFC after making quick work of Urijah Faber at UFC 245. While Aldo will be his toughest task to date, Yan has been a buzzsaw and is a complete MMA fighter. Bantamweight is the most exciting division in the sport with the likes of Aljo Sterling, Sean O'Malley, Cody Gardbrandt and the soon to be debuting Frankie Edgar (still disappointed UFC didn't find a replacement for his fight on Wednesday)

The women's division is the star of the first two fights on the PPV. Rose Namjunas and Jessica Andrade are rematching from their title fight in May of last year. Rose was picking Andrade apart when she was in the wrong position on a slam that knocked her out. Andrade then lost the title to Weili Zhang in her first defense. From what I've heard in pre-fight interviews Rose is focused and looking to avenge the loss. A win should put her back in title contention. Paige Van Zant is on the last fight of her contract and rumored to be on her way out of the UFC and beginning a career in Belator where her husband fights. UFC feels like this can be a chance at a star making performance for Amanda Ribas against the bigger name, and Vegas agrees.

Pick 5 Challenge (18-22 -$416) Updated 7/25

My luck is turning back around after a shaky start going 4-1 in the last card. I'll update this page with the rest of my picks for the Fight Night cards after doing some more research. Not going to lie, there are some donks on those cards.

UFC 251 (3-2 +$104)

Jorge Masvidal +195

Max Holloway +175

Petr Yan by KO/Submission +104

Rose Namajunas -210

Marcin Tybura -115

UFC Fight Night 7/15 (1-4 -$420)

Ricardo Ramos -165

Andreas Michalidis +145

Molly McCann -155

Tim Elliott -140

Cody Stamman +115

UFC Fight Night 7/18 (2-3 -$125)

Joe Benavidez +175

Kelvin Gastelum -130

Mark Diakiese -160

Arianne Lipski -125

Askar Askarov +165

Showcase Showoff part 1

This blog is a changeup from the usual fight and sports talk. Since there aren't any other sports aside UFC to comment on, I'm going to start a series of blogs showcasing my sports card collection. I picked the hobby back up, like many, during quarantine, and wanted to share what I've amassed here. In part one, I'll be showcasing my favorite Yankee and Jet cards.

Pick 5 Challenge (8-12 -$295)

I hit the last three fights at UFC 250 to bring us a $20 profit. Hope to keep chipping away (wassat) at that tonight's ESPN card. I think Volkov can fight smart tonight and try testing Blaydes' gas tank in the 5 round main event. The odds were too good to pass up.

Lauren Murphy -110

Gillian Robertson -125

Belal Muhammed -130

Josh Emmet +120

Alexander Volkov +310

UFC 250 and Fighters Rally Against Dana

In what should have been a milestone event, UFC 250 seems to have flown under the radar. I don't blame the causal fan for not caring much about the card, but as a sports-starved MMA fan, I think there's enough to get excited about to fork over my $60 to  Dana and Co,

The female GOAT returns in the main event to defend her Featherweight Title against 8-1 Felicia Spencer. Spencer's lone loss came again Cris Cyborg at UFC 240 last July. Nunes quite frankly shouldn't see much of a struggle in this contest.

In the co-main event, former Bantamweight Champ Cody Garbrandt has the most to lose on this card. After defeating Dominick Cruz at UFC 207, Cody was geared for superstardom, However, consecutive TKO losses to TJ Dillashaw and another KO loss to Pedro Munhoz at UFC 235 leaves No Love staring down the barrel. Another knockout loss would be devastating for Cody and may even be his last appearance in the Octagon. His opponent, Raphael Assuncao has only four knockout in his professional career and is riding a two fight skid himself. I think the time off should help Garbrandt and I see him picking up the win.

In addition to the co-main event, this is a night for the Bantamweights to shine. Top contenders Aljimain Sterling and Cory Sandhagen do battle as well as hot prospect Sugar Sean O'Malley fighting in the PPV opener against veteran Eddie Wineland. After Henry Cejudo retired and dropped the belt in his postfight interview following a win against Cruz at UFC 249, an impressive performance tonight can mean a shot at gold for one of these fighters. The rumored plan is for Petr Yan to face Jose Aldo for the title, but that's never guaranteed in the MMA world.

Pick 5 Challenge (5-9 -$315)

A few weeks ago I had some of the worst luck I've ever had gambling on MMA. My first four bets all went to split decision, and my pick lost all four. Getting back on the horse this weekend for UFC 250.

UFC 250 (3-3 +$20)
Jussier Formiga +108
Brian Kelleher +205
Gerald Meerschaert +105
Neil Magny -145
Aljimain Sterling -120
BONUS: Pointsbet Odds Booster - Nunes/Garbrandt +120

Overshadowing the action in the cage Saturday was the war of words between Jonny Bones Jones and Dana White. To make a long story short, Jones tweeted that the UFC wanted him to move up heavyweight for a dream fight against the scary motherfucker Francis Ngannou. During a press conference last weekend, Dana White said Jones was looking for a raise six times his normal purse for the fight and wanted for $30 million.  This led to a lot of back and forth and at one point Dana took aim at Jones' outside the cage issues "In one of his tweets, he said I tarnished his name. I tarnished you? You've done a very good job of tarnishing you."

After all the dust settled Sunday, Jone tweeted out the following:

Reyes vs Jan For the UFC light heavyweight championship of the world. As of right now, I got nothing to really gain fighting either of them. Let me know if you guys want to set up a day in 2021 for that Izzy fight. Hopefully you guys will be willing to pay by then. Bones out, when you see me in the streets just call me JJ. To the light heavyweight title Veni, vidi, vici

Neither man has a great track record when it comes to telling the truth, so I'm sure the truth falls somewhere in the middle. However, that dustup was followed today by one of UFC's other top stars, Jorge Masvidal, sending out a series of tweets to the UFC brass about his pay regarding a future title shot againt Kamaru Usman.

Shouldn’t be this hard to get a deal done #fuckery

History lesson for all the new fans that might have just started following my beautiful sport: 16 yr been at this. Never once turned down a fight. Asked to go fight #3 at the time in his hometown across the pond after a year off. Ko of the year nominee. Asked to fight #5 At the time and lets be real didn’t have to fight him. Fastest Ko in the history of ufc. Msg I am asked to fight 3 different guys and I said yes to all three. I fought in backyards and those dudes never disrespected me the way I’m being now 
@espn

It's not unusual for fighters to threaten walking out of the UFC as a negotiating ploy, but this time it's two of White's biggest stars teaming up against him. Without a gate for possibly the remainder of 2020, UFC can potentially lose out on $100 million. Despite that, reports in The Athletic say that UFC fighter pay of 18% revenue is much lower than any other professional sport.

I don't see how UFC and ESPN will sustain $60 monthly PPVs without their biggest stars until fans can fill the arenas again. Dana's already said he can't afford to let McGregor to fight on UFC Island without a crowd and now Jones and Masvidal are speaking out. This will be a potentially huge story to watch unfold over the next several months.

Back in Business

Eight weeks without a UFC event feels like an eternity in the era where you have an event at least three times a month. Tonight, we can finally rejoice, and we will "Face the Pain" together as UFC 249 is on in Jacksonville. Dana White, that bald beautiful bastard, held true to his word, and UFC will hopefully pave the way for other sports leagues to continue.

I survived a near heart attack last night, when news came out that Jacare Souza tested positive for corona, but luckily Dana and the Florida Athletic Commission had plans in place in case that happened. I think it needs to be understood in the UFC, and in all attempts for sports to continue, an athlete can possibly, and more likely than not, catch the virus. That shouldn't have to put a halt to the sport completely, the way it did when Rudy Goebert tested positive back in March. Every athlete that has gotten sick has been fine, and you need to chalk it up as the cost of doing business. As long as there are proper testing and other safety measures in place, like UFC had, it will  just be a new normal for now.

Now, onto the fun stuff. Tonight's three main events will pave the way for the direction of UFC in the rest of 2020. The rest of the card should also live up to the hype, with a lot of fan favorites and fighters who generally put on entertaining fights.

The main event of Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje almost guarantees fireworks, as you count the amount of bad fights these guys have had combined on one hand. In a way, the card being postponed from April 18th is a positive, since with time, the sting of losing Khabib-Tony for the fifth time has healed.  Ferguson is riding a twelve fight winning streak over the best of the lightweight division, while Gaethje is riding three consecutive first round knockouts over Vick, Barboza, and Cerrone. It's so hard to pick against Tony, since he has been a stylistic nightmare for everyone, and I expect his streak to continue tonight. The winner of this fight will hopefully have a date in the fall with Khabib. I'm hoping Endeavor's financial issues don't force the company's hand and give the title shot to Conor just yet.

The co-main event features Olympic gold medalist and champ-champ Henry Cejudo defending his bantamweight title against Dominick Cruz. The two-time former champion, Cruz, has had horrible injury luck in his career and is fighting for the first time since losing his title to Cody Garbrandt in December 2016. Cejudo won the flyweight title against Mighty Mouse in 2018 (himself and Cruz are the only two UFC fighters who were able to defeat DJ) and defeated Marlon Moraes in 2019 to get TJ Dillashaw's vacant bantamweight title and become a two division champ. My heart really wants to see Dominick Cruz beat the odds and complete one of the greatest comeback stories in sports. However, I think a four-year layoff and being thrown right into the fire against Cejudo is going to be too much to overcome.

The other co-main event is a battle between the two best knockout artists in the heavyweight division, Francis Ngannou and Jair Rozenstruick. After losing to Stipe Miocic and a lackluster performance against the Black Beast, Francis has won his last three fights in two minutes and 26 seconds. Jair is coming in with a 10-0 record, winning on a last second knockout against The Reem in December. Unfortunately, the heavyweight title is in limbo, with Stipe Miocic first out with an eye injury and now working his part time job as a firefighter in Cleveland. Daniel Cormier wants to complete his trilogy with Miocic over the summer, but is also eyeing retirement. An impressive performance by Jair or Francis can throw those plans aside. I'm picking Rozenstruick to get the upset, since I think he learned a lot being taken into deep waters by Overeem last time out.

UFC is also holding a rare weekday fight card on Wednesday headlined by Glover Teixeira v Anthony Smith and Ben Rothwell v Ovince St Preux and another show next Saturday headlined by Alistair Overeem v Walt Harris and Claudia Gadelha v Angela Hill. Hopefully all goes well this week, and we're back to seeing events every week again. Dana is still hyping up Fight Island for international fighters in June.

Pick 5 Challenge

I'm going to start holding myself accountable for these picks. To keep the math easy, I'm betting $100 on underdogs and the minus number on favorites to win $100.

(Updated 5/13 9 AM)

UFC 248 (2-3, -$70)

Tony Ferguson -210

Henry Cejudo -200

Jair Rozenstruick +215

Donald Cerrone +120

Aleksei Oleinik +240

5/13 (2-2 -$38)
Michael Johnson -110
Drew Dober -115
Marvin Vettori -180
Ovince St Preux -160
Glover Teixeira +132

5/16
Mara Romero Borella +124
Eryk Anders +112
Edson Barboza -135
Angela Hill +175
Alistair Overeem +128

Money in the Bank is on Sunday, and it will be closing a pretty bland post Mania month for WWE. Even with nothing else to do, I've felt like Raw and Smackdown have been a chore to get through lately. That being said, I'm excited to see what WWE can pull off here.

Both the men's and women's MITB are taking place at the same time, and will be pre-recorded and edited in a cinematic style. The 6 men and 6 women will start at the ground floor of Titan Towers, and fight their way to the roof where there is a ring and scaffolding where the briefcases are being hung.  The concept has me more intrigued, and with a small card, I expect the match to be close to an hour. It will be fun to see a tour inside of the WWE's offices while they partially destroy it. On Raw Monday, they were teasing that someone will be thrown off the roof and murdered (that's not PG). I'll go with Asuka and AJ Styles to grab their respective briefcases.

In addition to the MITB matches, Braun Strowman defends his title against Bray Wyatt, in a battle of former Wyatt Family members. I'd be shocked to see Braun lose in his first title defense in what should be a long feud until Roman Reigns can return. Also, I think the fact we're seeing Bray and not The Fiend is a clue that he won't be winning.

On the Raw side, Seth Rollins challenges for Drew McIntyre's newly won belt. This feud hasn't moved the needle for me and I can't really get behind either character. I'll go with Drew to retain his first title defense also.