NFL Week 4 Picks

NFL

I can't believe we're about to reach the quarter pole of the NFL season already. Parity is at an all time high in the league, and every week it seems like another "contender" loses to a team it has no business losing to. Looking at the schedule, this is one of the weakest slate of games so far this season. Let's get on to the Week 4 Picks

Last Week 3-2-1
Season: 10-4-2
Locks of the Week: 0-2-1
HOME TEAM in Caps

1) FALCONS -7 over Panthers

LOCK OF THE WEEK: The Falcons offense is on fire right now. Matty Ice has taken the step up, and is one of the best quarterbacks in the league (having Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez doesn't hurt). The Panthers are coming off a long rest after being picked apart by the Giants on Thursday. Cam Newton is getting careless with the football, and he can't afford to give Atlanta any extra possessions.

2) Giants +1.5 over EAGLES 

The G-Men should have Hakeem Nicks back for this matchup, and they may not need Ahmad Bradshaw with the way Andre Brown ran against the Panthers. The Eagles could easily be 0-3 right now, and their offensive line is getting Michael Vick killed. The Giants defense is brutal when it smells blood.

3) Bears +3.5 over COWBOYS

Both of these teams have been inconsistent this season. Jay Cutler looks like a different quarterback when teams are able to blitz him. It looks like Matt Forte will be back for this game, and they'll have the two-headed attack with him and Michael Bush. The Cowboys are giving up a stingy 137 passing yards per game, but are getting torched for 113 yards a game on the ground. This plays right into Chicago's strength.

4) Redskins +3 over BUCS

RG3 has kept Washington in every game this season, and I'd be shocked if they lost in Tampa. The Bucs have an average defense, but their offense is struggling to put points on the board.

5) Raiders +6 over BRONCOS

There is something up with Gym (Peyton) Manning Laundry, whether it's the offensive line, struggling with a new system, or just the fact that he hasn't played in over a year following neck surgery. Darren McFadden is started heating up against the Steelers, and if the Raiders offense can keep the ball out of Peyton's hands they should win this game.

Jets

In a split second the faith of the Jets season took a dramatic turn for the worst. Late in the third quarter of Sunday's game against the Dolphins, Darelle Revis cut and his knee buckled. Jets fans hoped it wasn't a torn ACL, but Rex Ryan confirmed our worst fears on Monday announcing that Revis Island is closed for the season. 

In the Rex Ryan administration this is the first major injury we are going to have to overcome. This hurts worse than Kris Jenkins' injury, and all of Chad Pennington's shoulder problems. Vinny Testaverde's achilles tear will always be the worst injury in Jets history because we were Super Bowl contenders in the 1999 season. At best the 2012 Jets were a Wild Card team that could possibly win a playoff game.

You also have to look in the future a little bit, and it is fair to speculate if Darelle Revis  played his last game as a Jet. Woody Johnson and Mike Tannenbaum didn't want to pay him Namdi Asomugah money when he was healthy, they certainly aren't going to give that to him now coming off an ACL tear. Before the 2010 season Revis signed a patchwork contract just to end his pre-season long hold out and play the opening game. Depending on whom you believe, they were supposed to work on a long term deal before this season (the more I see from Mike T the more I think of him as a conniving rat). Obviously that didn't happen, and you have to believe he's going to prove he's healthy next season before getting paid. You have to look no further to our JetLife Stadium neighbors to see how dangerous an ACL tear is to a corner. Terrell Thomas' career may be over after re-injuring his knee this training camp.

Back to reality now, as the Jets have a tough test in front of them this Sunday, the San Francisco 49ers. San Fran is considered the team to beat in the NFC, with a swarming defense and a good running game (kind of like the 2009 Jets). 

When the Jets Have the Ball

The fact of the matter is this Jets offense isn't very good. Sanchez is an average quarterback, but he doesn't have enough help around him. Shonn Greene (2.8 yard per carry) is good at wearing defenses down, but he doesn't put fear in the defenses that have to play the Jets. Rex Ryan admitted that he was thinking of giving Bilal Powell (4.0 ypc) more carries starting this week. 

It is looking like we may see the return of Dustin Keller, who has battled a hamstring injury that occurred in the pre-season. Keller and Sanchez have good chemistry, and he is our check down receiver, so getting him back is a huge positive. Santonio Holmes had a breakout game in Miami, and if his heart is really back in the right place (and that's a big question mark) then we should see more of the same with him. Jeremy Kerley is proving to be our big play guy. He doesn't catch a lot of balls, but is great in open space. Stephen Hill may not play because of a hamstring injury. Hill was kept off the box score in the last two games after having a breakout debut game.

The 49ers have a great front seven, led by Justin Smith and Patrick Willis. They will be able to put pressure on Sanchez, and usually that spells trouble for #6. San Fran's stats are a little skewed because they've allowed Green Bay and Detroit to move the ball in the 4th quarter once they were up a couple scores. You have to think they're going to be firing on all cylinders after losing to the Vikings last week.

When the 49ers Have the Ball

The Jets defense has been disappointing this season, even before the loss of Darelle Revis. It is going to be interesting to see if Rex calls for more exotic blitzes to help hide the fact that are secondary is considerably weaker now. San Fran's offense isn't anything special, but they are efficient. Their running game is ranked 7th in the league, led by Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter. The Jets run D has been torched this season, and our front seven has been pushed around by Miami and Buffalo.

Alex Smith is an average quarterback and has improved tremendously under coach Jim Harbaugh. After averaging about an interception a game in his first five seasons, he has only thrown 6 picks in 19 games under Harbaugh. The 49ers don't throw the ball to their wide receivers a lot, so the loss of Revis doesn't hurt us too much in this game. The Jets upgraded at their safety position in the offseason for games like this one. LaRon Landry and Yeremiah Bell are going to be asked to stop Vernon Davis who has 13 catches for 169 and 4 touchdowns this season.

Prediction

Hide the women and children, because this one is going to be ugly. I frankly don't see the Jets putting up much of a fight against a team that is coming off an embarrassing loss to Minnesota last week.

49ers 27  Jets 7

UFC

On Saturday night Jon Jones came the closest in his UFC career to losing a fight in the Octagon (not counting the questionable disqualification). Vitor Belfort locked on an armbar, and he had it in tight, but the champion showed his fighting spirit by refusing to tap. Jones than went on to pick apart Belfort, before getting "The Phenom" to tap out to an americana in the fourth round. Now the question is who is going to to fight Jones next. 

Dana White was upset at Shogun Rua and Lyoto Machida for turning down an opportunity to fight Bones at this pay-per view. Rumored mathups between Machida against Dan Henderson and Rua against Alexander Gustafsson are in the works.  Add in the fact that Chael Sonnen may have trash-talked his way into a third title fight (fans are clamoring for this fight), and there is a log-jam for the the number one contender. Luckily, the news is good that Jones didn't do any significant damage in his arm by refusing to tap. Hopefully we'll see him fight in early 2013. 

UFC 152 crowned the first UFC Flyweight Champion as Demetrious Johnson picked apart Joe Benavidez for the better part of five rounds. Johnson used his tremendous speed to his advantage, and Joe B didn't have an answer. The little guys bring a different style than UFC fans are accustomed to, as some of the fans in Toronto pissed of Dana White by booing. The fight wasn't great, but it was a fun 25 minute battle.

Finally, Michael Bisping had his coming out party, and may have earned a title fight after grinding out a hard-fought win against Brian Stann. Bisping was able to out-wrestle Stann to win a three-round decision. Since losing to Dan Henderson at UFC 100, Bisping is 6-2 (including a controversial loss to Chael Sonnen. He deserves a shot against Anderson Silva just as much as anyone else in the 185 pound division. Plus, he is good at selling fights, and that means more money in Zuffa's pockets.

Folk Hero

Folk Hero

I am relieved that the Jets escaped Miami with a win, but they may have lost the most important player on their team. Rumors are that Darelle Revis may have torn his ACL, and is feared to be lost for the season.  In a game that saw mistakes on both sides of the ball, the most crucial one was by new Dolphins coach Pat Philbin. After Dan Carpenter missed a 48-yard field goal to win the game, Nick Folk was set to kick a 33 yarder to give the Jets the win. Miami blocked the kick and regained possession...... wait a second..... Philbin called a timeout to try and "ice" Folk, so that field goal try was negated. When it counted Folk made the kick to send the Jets to 2-1 before a meeting with the 49ers. It is better to win ugly than lose pretty, and the Jets got lucky on Sunday.

Offense

C-

While I'm not here to be a Mark Sanchez apologist, he had a bad game, but you can't place all the offensive woes on the quarterback. Mark was 21/45 for 306 yards a touchdown and two interceptions, but he really never looked comfortable from the start of the game. The Dolphins were getting constant pressure throughout the game, sacking him once, but hitting him 7 times. Sanchez's numbers weren't helped by the fact that our receivers dropped a handful of balls. Also, Mark's safety blanket Dustin Keller hasn't played due to a hamstring injury.

Watching the game there were more than a few times where our receivers are bunched up together. I'm not sure if that is bad playcalling or a receiver not knowing which route to run. Sanchez's first interception was caused by a bad route run by Clyde Gates. His second pick in the end zone is just one of those hair-pulling throws he makes on a too regular basis. Add in the fact that Miami dropped an easy interception when he threw the ball while getting sacked late in the fourth quarter.

I have to give credit when it's due, and Santonio Holmes had probably one of his best games as a Jet. Holmes caught 9 passes for 147 yards (and also drew two pass interference calls), including a 38 yard completion in overtime that set up the game-winning field goal. Jeremy Kerley had his third score of the season, catching two balls for 73 yards. Meanwhile rookie Stephen Hill was kept off of the stat sheet for the second straight game, dropping a couple passes before getting injured in the second half. The rushing game was non-existent again.We had 33 carries for 88 yards.

You have my word that this is the last time I will talk about Tim Tebow, until his role in the offense changes significantly. He has been overhyped by the Jets front office, and they aren't using his unique skill set to help the team.  Yes, he did run a fake punt, and on a Mark Sanchez pass a ball hit him in the head (sabotage?), but it's just perplexing why we refuse to use him more. The Daily News' Bob Raissman brought up a good point that the Jets traded for Tim Tebow just to distract the media and fans from the fact that this just isn't a very good football team.

Defense

B-

The big story of the game on the defensive side of the ball is Darelle Revis' injury, which is the one thing the Jets couldn't have had happen. Rex's big bad defense just hasn't looked dominant this season. It drives me crazy to see mediocre running backs rumble through us for five yards a carry (The Jets have the 28th ranked run defense in the NFL). That shows a lack of intensity in our front seven. Our pass rush wasn't getting to Ryan Tannehill, and he had time to pick us apart. The Dolphins were 10-17 on third down conversions keeping our defense on the field. LaRon Landry made a game changing pick six to start the second half, and our defense forced a fumble on the Dolphins second drive of the third quarter. David Harris and Mo Wilkerson led the team with 9 tackles.

The defense has trouble closing games, and it is starting to become a worrying trend. After our offense took the lead with 3:01 left in the game the Dolphins marched down the field with a 12 play 48 yard drive that led to the game-tying field goal. They followed that up with an 8 play 60 yard drive, and if it wasn't for Dan Carpenter's missed field goal in overtime I'd be writing a totally different post this morning.

Special Teams

A

Once again, Mike Westhoff's unit was the lone bright spot on the team (except for a questionable call on Eric Smith when he ran into the punter costing the Jets potential points before halftime). Robert Mallone is looking really good, coffin cornering several punts. Nick Folk was a perfect 3/3 and on a day when the Dolphins kicker Dan Carpenter struggled.

Around the AFC

The Patriots lose another game, and are under .500 for the first time in 9 years! This time, they blew a 9 point lead with 7:29 left in the fourth quarter. The Ravens took Rob Gronkowski out of the game, but Brady found Brandon Lloyd and Wes Welker for a total of 250 yards. The game ended in controversy when Justin Tucker's 27 yard field goal as time expired went over the goal posts. The refs called the kick good, even as the Patriots were celebrating the "win". Bill Bellichick is going to get a nice fine for grabbing the ref at the end of the game. Torrey Smith put on an inspirational performance catching 6 passes for 127 yards following the death of his brother..... The Texans may be the real deal. They are the only AFC team to start 3-0, and beat an above average Broncos team. The shot Matt "Stump the" Schaub took was brutal, but he manned up and finished the game..... The Chargers were dismantled at home by the Falcons.  Phillip Rivers threw 2 interceptions and the returning Ryan Matthews coughed up a fumble..... Bills fans are holding their breath after CJ Spiller's shoulder injury. It's going to be a mad dash in fantasy leagues for Tashard Choice now...... Rutgers' Alumn (by the way, that was a huge win against Arkansas on Saturday and now they're ranked in the Top 25) the Bengals Mohamed Sanu started the game off with a bang by throwing the ball 73 yards to AJ Green. The Bengals defense leaves a lot to be desired, but the offense can keep up against most defenses.... The Jaguars looked like the Cardiac Cats again with an 80 yard TD pass to Cecil "Salute Your" Shorts to beat the Colts. MoJo was in midseason form running for 177 yards. As good as Andrew Luck is, you have to remember most of the guys around him went 1-15 last year..... The Raiders comeback against the Steelers was one of many games this week that killed suicide pools. Despite the Jets game, the Steelers are not the powerhouse they once were and injuries are slowly killing their season. 

Around the NFC

The Cardinals are 3-0, and the Saints are 0-3. That is all you need to know about the NFL this season... The Eagles were the next victim to the Cardinals hard hitting opportunistic defense. The Eagles' 12 turnovers through 3 games leads the NFL, and Vick has been sacked 9 times. A date with the Big Blue Wrecking Crew awaits the Iggles on Sunday Night, and you have to wonder if Vick is going to last until the end of the game...... Just like Jets fans, Cowboys fans are waking up this morning following an ugly win. The 'Boys were built to beat the Giants and haven't played with the same intensity that they did in the opening game..... The Lions look lost this season. The game with Tennessee was one of the craziest games in NFL history that saw the Titans score 21 points off of special teams and defense (Music City Miracle pt 2, a kick return for a TD, a fumble return for a TD), the Lions tie the game with a Hail Mary, and then Jim Schwartz going for and not converting on 4th and 1 in overtime on the Titans 6, when a field goal would have extended the game.... Just when you think you know everything the Football Gods prove you know nothing. The Vikings win against the 49ers proves that you can't take any game for granted, and any given Sunday any one team can beat any other team..... The Giants on Thursday just continues to prove that they are one of the most resilient teams in the league. No matter who gets injured their replacements find a way to get the job done. Carpenter missed 2 kicks that was even more impressive.

NFL Week 3 Picks

NFL

Last Week: 3-1-1

Season: 7-2-1

Lock of The Week: 0-2

HOME TEAM in Caps

1) Jets -3 over DOLPHINS

I hate do this, but the Jets are my Lock of the Week. See below for my game preview.

2) Bengals +4 over REDSKINS

So we know that the Redskins beat the Saints in Week 1, and should have beaten the Rams this Sunday. The Bengals got man-handled by a Ravens squad that could be one of the best in the league, and beat the Browns, who are one of the worst. The Redskins have a better offense, led by RG3, but their defense suffered two crippling injuries last week. I see both of these teams being pretty equal, but the Bengals getting 4 points is tempting.

3) COLTS +2.5 over Jaguars

When in doubt, take Andrew Luck over Blaine Gabbert. The Colts rookie signal-caller threw for 224 yards and 2 TD in his home debut against Minnesota. Blaine Gabbert threw for 53 yards, and his QB rating was 9.6! Jason Bay's batting average is higher than that. Do I need to say more?

4) Bills -3 over BROWNS

The best thing that could have happened to Buffalo was Fred Jackson's injury. CJ Spiller has saved some fantasy teams and the Bills by running for 292 yards and 3 TDs so far this season. The Bills dominated a bad Chiefs team after getting raked over the coals by the Jets in Week 1. Browns rookie RB Trent Richardson had a breakout game on Sunday running for 109 and a TD. After Richardson there isn't many positives about Cleveland. 

5) RAVENS -3 over Patriots

This is a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game. Baltimore is a really good home team, and their suffocating defense makes this a tough matchup for the Patsies. Tom Brady had an uncharacteristic bad game against Arizona, and will be without one of his favorite targets, Aaron Hernandez for at least a month.

Extra Point: Giants -1 over PANTHERS

Big Blue is now team Black and Blue with injuries to David Diehl, Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks, and Domenik Hixon. The Giants are going to need a young player, either Andre Brown, Rueben Randle, or David Wilson to come up big tonight. I'm still waiting for the signature Giants defense to step up, and I think it may come tonight. If the pass rush gets going then they could make Cam Newton's day a living hell. Just ask Michael Vick. The Giants secondary leaves a lot to be desired though, and Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell could have a good days against Corey Webster and the returning Prince Akanakmakmukamura if the pass rush isn't there. If this turns into a shootout, it could come down to who has the ball last.

Jets

The Jets played poorly against the Steelers, and luckily for them they have the doormats of the AFC East next on their schedule. Gang Green goes back to the spot where last season fell apart on New Years Day 2012. In Miami the Jets still had a prayer at the playoffs, but in-fighting found it's way onto the field and our season imploded. Hopefully we'll get a better results on Sunday.

When Jets Have the Ball

This has been the biggest question mark of this early season. What Jets offense is going to show up in Miami on Sunday? The Dolphins defense isn't the '85 Bears by any stretch of the imagination, but it seems likes for some reason this offense just has days where it can't move the football. I thought it was Brian Schottenheimer's fault, but the Rams are letting Sam Bradford air it out. So, it must be that the organization and head coach don't have any faith in their starting quarterback.

Rex wants a ground and pound offense, but the teams most talented runner is their backup quarterback. We heard so much about Tim Tebow all offseason that his lack of involvement (and vanilla playcalling when he's in) has been disappointing. Tebowmania started last season in Miami, and with the Gator fans in full force he may have a breakout game. I know that Tony Sparano wants to beat Miami, the team that fired him last year, and will try to dig deep into his bag of tricks. I'd like to see the team take the kid gloves off of Sanchez, especially with our defense who can survive a couple turnovers from the offense. If we don't put up at least 28 on Sunday I have serious doubts about the rest of the season.

When Dolphins Have the Ball

The Jets defense is steaming mad, and can't wait to take the field on Sunday. All indications are that Darelle Revis will be back, thus shoring up our secondary. Rex Ryan said to the media on Monday "Don't bet against us" when talking up the D. Miami's offensive line is weak, and the Jets should be able to rattle rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill with a steady pass rush of Aaron "Mayhem" Maybin and Quinton "Rampage" Coples. The Dolphins don't really have a great receiving threat. Reggie Bush is looking like the explosive player he did coming out of USC, and if Miami has any chance they need him to have a huge game.

Prediction: Jets 35 Dolphins 13

UFC

The UFC lost another card due to fighter injuries. This time thought, Dana White and Joe Silva are arguably giving Brazilians fans a better card at UFC 153. I agree with what Wrestling Observer Newsletter writer Dave Meltzer brought up, that hardcore UFC fans, who order every fight anyway, want to see fights between contenders and make up their base audience which is around 250,000 pay-per view buys.. On the other hand, the casual UFC fans buy shows to see stars and big feuds. When the  UFC ropes them in those are the shows that have over 500,000 buys. In this view, the fights are better for the casual viewer.

The card changed from a main event of Frankie Edgar vs Jose Aldo and a co-main of Rampage Jackson against Glover Teixeira to a main event of Anderson Silva against Stephan Bonner, and Co-main events of Big Nog vs Dave Herman and Glover Teixeira vs Fabio Maldonado. Anderson and Big Nog are legends in Brazil.

Injuries are now just something you have to get used to as a UFC fan, because I don't see there being a quick fix. It hurts fans who want to get tickets to live events, especially if you want to see a specific fighter and not the UFC brand, because the shows usually sell out the day they go on sale. Pay-per view buyers have the luxury of not committing to ordering a show until seconds before it starts.

Jon Jones finally steps into the Octagon on Saturday against Vitor Belfort at UFC 152. We all know how we got here, and I'm frankly sick of talking about it at this point. Here are my quick picks for this event:

I went 3-2 in my UFC 150 picks bringing my record to 11-10.

Jon Jones over Vitor Belfort by KO

Joe Benavidez over Demetrious Johnson by Decision

Brian Stann over Michael Bisping by KO

Matt Hamill over Roger Holett by Decision

Charles Oliveira over Cub Swanson by Submisson

Will The Real New York Jets Please Stand Up

SAME OLD JETS!!!!

After the opening game against Buffalo where everything went perfect, the Jets went to Heinz Field and were outplayed and outcoached. The Jets were without Darelle Revis, but the Steelers didn't have two of their biggest playmakers on defense in Troy Polamalu and James Harrison. "Gag Green" regressed to their preseason woes, getting called for dumb penalties and stupid mental errors.


Offense

Mark Sanchez was awful, backing up the belief that when everyone around him isn't playing well he falters. Sanchez finished the game 10-27 for 138 yards and a TD, but he was worse than those numbers suggest. He was 0-7 passing in the second quarter! After breakout games in Week 1, Stephen Hill and Jeremy Kerley weren't even part of the gameplan against Pittsburgh. Hill was kept out of the box score, and Kerley grabbed two balls for 67 yards, but didn't have a reception between the second and the second to last drive of the game. Santonio Holmes in the meantime was targeted 11 times, but only caught three of them for 28 yards and the Jets only touchdown of the day.

Tony Sparano's playcalling was reminiscent of Brian Schottenheimer. They were extremely conservative not trying for some points in their final drive of the first half. They showed that they have zero confidence in their starting QB.

The  lone bright spot on the offensive offense's side of the ball was Tim Tebow, who in a three play series had a long run, handed off to Joe McKnight for another first down, and was inexplicably taken off after Shonn Greene was stopped behind the line of scrimmage. It's games like this that Tebow could be successful, and the Jets kept the ball out of his hand. Shonn Greene  and Bilal Powell combined for a measly 56 yards on 20 carries.

After scoring 10 points in their first two drives the Jets offense came to a sceeching halt. In their next seven drives (not including the final drive of the game after the Steelers were up 27-10) the offense had 26 plays for 71 yards.

Defense

I understand that Revis wasn't playing, but Big Ben picked us apart. We couldn't get off the field on third down, and that CANNOT happen. On a third and very long Antonio Cromartie was too busy looking at something shiny in the stands instead of defending Mike Wallace. It seemed like the ball hung in the air forever and Cromartie was about five yards behind Wallace in the end zone. I love the reckless style of LaRon Landry, but he needs to bottle his aggression. Two personal fouls against him (late hit and horse coller) extended both of the Steelers touchdown drives. The missed tackles are starting to become an alarming habit.

The Steelers were 8-15 on 3rd down conversions, as opposed to the Jets who were 4-12. The most telling stat though is that the Steelers were on the field 13 minutes more (36-23) than the Jets offense. Not only were the Jets defense not able to get off the field, but when they did the offense didn't hold it for long.

Special Teams

Nick Folk made the only field goal he attempted, and new punter Rob Malone was probably our MVP for the game. Jeremy Kerley made a bone-headed play muffing a punt that the Steelers recovered. You have to just fair catch that ball.

The Jets are one of several teams who had Jekyll and Hyde weeks, and the question now is who are the real Jets? A date with the Dolphins awaits Gang Green on Sunday in what is a very winnable game that could help erase some of this weeks pain. I don't even want to imagine them losing that game.

Around the AFC

The Patriots' loss to the Cardinals is the biggest shock of this early season, knocking a ton of people out of their suicide pools. After Ryan Williams fumbled, you knew the Patriots were going to win. I was glad to be wrong. The funniest image of the day was Bob Kraft's face when Gotskowski missed that kick. Brady and Bellicheat look vulnerable this season..... The Bills and Dolphins looked good this week beating up on the basement of the AFC West.....   The Ravens did everything but win the game against Philly. It seems like they are taking the ball out of Ray Rice's hands, and slowly becoming a pass first offense...... Andrew Luck won his first career game in Indy, looking good passing for 224 yards and 2 scores...... The Texans dominated Jacksonville. Blaine Gabbert passed for 13 yards in the first half!...... The Chargers controlled the ball for 43 minutes against the Titans. They are proving the critics who wrote them off wrong by having an unusually strong September. What is up with Chris Johnson?

Around the NFC

Ok Giants fans, have your fun. Big Blue was in the most exciting game of Week 2, turning a horrific first half from Eli Manning around. Eli finished off the day with 510 yards, and Hak Nicks and Victor Cruz both had over 175 yards receiving. I thought we were going to see overtime when Vincent Jackson made that terrific catch right after the two-minute warning, but Manning made another argument why he is one of the best 4th quarter QB's in the NFL. I don't have a problem with Greg Schiano getting his players to play to the final whistle....... The Eagles won a hard fought chippy game against Baltimore. They are 2-0 winning both games by the minimum 1-point margin. All you have to do in the NFL is win though..... Jay Cutler got banged around on Thursday by the Pack, and his 4 interceptions weren't all his fault..... The Lions are looking more and more like a one-dimensional team .... I'm shocked that the Saints are 0-2. I was expecting them to have a good bounce-back game this week, and it didn't come. It's still early but they are the most disappointing team in the first 2 weeks of the season..... The Seahawks could have the best home team advantage in football shutting the explosive Cowboys offense down.

NFL Week 2 Picks

Week Two Picks

Week Two in the NFL can be tricky, because people tend to overreact to a Week One win or loss. When a playoff-calibre team loses Week One it makes them more prepared and fired up to avoid going 0-2. 

Last Week: 4-1

Season: 4-1 

(home team in CAPITAL LETTERS)

1) Saints -2.5 over CAROLINA

This is my Lock of the Week. In an NFC South matchup, the Saints and Panthers both try to avoid going 0-2. Despite how good Cam Newton is, the rest of the Panthers team doesn't scare me. After getting torched by RG3 in the opener, the Saints are going to be fired up to avoid going 0-2. New Saints defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo's defense typically takes a couple weeks to learn. The Saints outscored Carolina 75-44 in two victories last season.

2) EAGLES -1 over Ravens

The Ravens demolished a pretty good Bengals team on Monday night, while the Eagles barely escaped Cleveland with a victory. With a one point spread, Vegas is begging you to take the Ravens. When a line looks too good to be true it usually is. Take the Eagles at home looking to get some of their mojo back.

3) BILLS -3 over Chiefs

The Bills can't be as bad as they looked against the Jets. People were predicting them to be a possible playoff contender before the season started. They come back to the friendly confines of Ralph Wilson Stadium with a chip on their shoulder, and should play really well against an average Chiefs squad.

4) 49ERS -6.5 over Lions

I'm not making this pick against the Lions despite their weak showing in Week One, but the 49ers may be the best team in the NFC. I knew that their defense was going to be one of the best in the league, but it's their offense that surprised me. New receivers Randy Moss and Mario Manningham open the field up for the running game.

5) FALCONS -3 over Broncos

Both teams looked good in their first game. Peyton Manning looked comfortable in his first game back, but the Steelers were without James Harrison and Ryan Clark. Brent Grimes is going to miss the rest of the season with a torn achilles for Atlanta. Matty Ice just doesn't lose at home, and the Falcons offense looks explosive. I love them at home giving 3.

Jets-Steelers Week 2 Preview

I'm going to milk the Jets Week 1 win against Buffalo for as long as possible, but the Jets have a tough test going to Pittsburgh in Week 2. This is the team's first matchup against the Black and Yellow since losing the AFC Championship at Heinz Field in January 2011. The Steelers defense played Peyton Manning well Sunday even without James Harrison and Ryan Clark.

When the Jets Have the Ball

The offense looked good against Buffalo, but the Steelers are another story. Pittsburgh has had a top 5 defense for as long as I could remember, and points are going to be at a minimum. Sanchez was very efficient in Week One, and Stephen Hill looks like he could be the deep threat that the Jets lacked last season. I wonder if we'll see a little more Tim Tebow hoping to recapture the magic of the Wild Card Playoff game last season against the Steelers. The Jets struggled rushing the ball against the Bills, and it's going to be a lot harder to get that going against Pittsburgh.

When the Steelers Have the Ball

The biggest question mark of the Jets' D is going to be whether or not Pro Bowl corner Darelle Revis plays. The only tackle Bart Scott had all season was against his own teammate, giving Revis a slight concussion. Considering how anal Roger Goodell is about player safety I find it unlikely that Revis Island finds it's way to Heinz Field. The Steelers have a great pair of targets in Mike Wallace and Antonio Brown, and if Big Ben could stay upright then he will be able to find them. Rex is going to dial up the blitzes because of the Steeler's weak line and he'll need to pull a couple tricks out of his bag if Revis is out.  Even if Rashard Mendenhall plays, the Steelers rushing game doesn't concern me.

Prediction:

The Jets are probably not as good as they looked against Buffalo, and Pittsburgh is going to be more desperate for a win, coming home after losing Week 1. In franchise history the Jets are 4-17 against the Steel Curtain.  That being said, it should be a competitive game, but I think the Steelers defense forces Sanchez to make a mistake late in the game that seals their victory.

Steelers 24 Jets 17

Jets Fly High and Other Week 1 Thoughts

Jets

After only scoring 31 points in four preseason games, the Tony Sparano run Jets offense took off scoring a franchise opening game high 48 points in their 48-28 thumping of Buffalo at JetLife Stadium. That's how you start a season Giants fans! The Jets played with a purpose after being called Clowns and criticized in the media all offseason after a dismal 2011 campaign. It looks like the Jets put their concentration back on the football field, and if that lasts all season we are a force to be reckoned with. While it was fun watching the first Football Sunday with my boys at the sports bar yesterday, and it made my week at work a lot more enjoyable, you can't take a lot out of the first game.  

I'm ecstatic that Mark Sanchez had an amazing game going 19-27 for 266 yards, three touchdowns, and a dumb pick ( it was negated by a Revis Island INT on the ensuing Bills drive). Sanchez kept the defense off the field by successfully converting 7 of 9 third down conversions in the first half. Stephen Hill had an impressive rookie debut catching five balls for 89 yards and two touchdowns. The offensive line as a whole played really well, and Sanchez had plenty of protection all game long. 

Tim Tebow was pretty much a non-factor in the offense running the ball five times for 11 yards (but he did recover the onside kick at the end of the game). The Jets Nation crowd showed support for Sanchez booing Tebow at one point in the game. It was strange to see Tebow run in the game and see #6 leave the field, but it could be beneficial against tough defenses. All in all Tebow took seven snaps under center, and played a few more lined up as a wide receiver. I know that Sparano has more ideas in his bag of tricks that he saved up because the regular offense was in a rhythm and the Jets were clicking on all cylinders.

One negative, if you want to even call it that, was that Gang Green's ground and pound running game didn't really take off. Shonn Greene, Bilal Powell, and Tebow ran the ball a combined 36 times for 118 yards (only 3.3 yards a carry). Other than that the offense looked great. Sparano is a breath of fresh air from the Schottenheimer Era, and it is a good sign for the next 15+ weeks. 

Defensively, it was another great performance from Rex's unit. The final stats don't tell the real story, because the defense took most of the second half off. The Bills ran 23 plays in the first half for 85 yards, with three turnover, one punt and a touchdown as the Jets ran out to a 27-7 lead. LaRon Landry had an impressive debut game leading the team with seven tackles and a forced fumble. All three starting corners had an interception, with Cromartie returning his for a touchdown. Special teams had a good game as well. Jeremy Kerley returned a punt for a touchdown, Tebow recovered an onsides kick, Nick Folk was a perfect 2/2 in field goal tries.

Thoughts Around the League

The Giants defensive line couldn't get to Tony Romo and he torched their weak secondary. Wait, didn't someone say that in their season preview :) SUCK IT GIANTS!!!!! I heard they're hiring corners off the street, even if the closest you got to a football field was Madden '13. And yes, I know you won 4 Super Bowls and the Jets only won 1, I don't care......... RG3 had an impressive rookie debut against the Saints who may miss Sean Payton more than they're letting on..... The Eagles almost lost to the Browns..... the Eagles almost LOST TO THE BROWNS. That is all....... The 49ers might be the real deal giving the Packers all they could handle..... Matthew Stafford looked awful against the Rams, and Detroit would be waking up really depressed today if not for a last second drive..... Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall are going to be a dangerous combination in Chicago. They haven't missed a step since their days together in Denver....... Russell Wilson almost led Seattle to a last second win in Arizona, even if they got five timeouts.

The Patriots offensive line issues could one of the biggest stories in the NFL this season. Tom Brady was getting killed by an average Titans defense......  The Texans are as good as I thought, and the Dolphins are as bad as advertised on Hard Knocks..... The Broncos ended last season the same way they started this one. This time it was Peyton Manning (who looked good in his Broncos debut) hooking up with Demaryius Thomas for the long TD against Pitt..... Could the Steelers offensive line be worse than New England's?...... Welcome to the NFL Andrew Luck. He got a tough draw going up against Da Bears in his debut.... Two big Monday night games tonight with four possible AFC playoff contenders.

The replacement refs had a good week all things considered. Especially when regular MLB umpires missed the Mark Teixeira safe call on Saturday. 

NFL Week 1: Best Bets

NFL

Welcome to a new addition to my weekly column where I'll break down the top 5 NFL football lines (for entertainment purposes only of course). I'll keep a weekly record to see how well I do throughout the season. Week 1 is the hardest week in the NFL to predict because you really don't know how these teams are going to look.

1) GIANTS -4 vs Cowboys

This might come as a surprise to those of you who read my NFC Preview column, but the Giants are my Lock of the Week for Week One. Not only is the Big Blue faithful going to be whipped into a frenzy seeing Giants football for the first time since Super Bowl 47, but they are playing Dallas at the right time. The "Boys could conceivably be without their top 3 passing targets, and their weak offensive line plays right into the Giants hands. Eli Manning passed for 746 yards in two games against Dallas in 2011, and I expect more of the same here.

2) Patriots -6.5 at TITANS

I expect the Titans to be a respectable team this season, but I just don't see how you can pass up the Patriots at under a touchdown. Tom Brady is going to have a field day with his plethora of passing targets against the Titans secondary that lost Cortland Finnegan.

3) Falcons -2.5 at CHIEFS

I'm expecting big things from Matt Ryan this season. The Falcons offense is stacked with great receivers and a good running game. The Chiefs are welcoming back safety Eric Berry and running back Jamaal Charles who were lost for the season last year. This should be a competitive game, but I love the Falcons giving a field goal.

4) Jaguars +4 at VIKINGS 

The Jaguars got good news when Maurice Jones Drew returned from his holdout on Sunday. Second year quarterback Blaine Gabbert has a new pair of dynamic receivers and has looked good in the preseason. AP is a game-day decision for this game after tearing his ACL last year. Even if he does play his workload will be severely limited. I trust Gabbert more than Christian Ponder in this game.

5) RAVENS -5.5 VS Bengals

The Ravens were 2-0 against Cincy last season as Ray Rice ran for a total of 295 yards.  I expect Cincy to be better this season, but on this night the Ravens will be fired up to return to the field after their heart-breaking loss in the 2011 AFC Championship Game. 

Jets

The Jets may or may not be ready to start the season, but they don't have a choice on Sunday. As a Jet fan it is hard to be optimistic following the preseason. However, we usually play Buffalo well, and since it's opening in 2010, we are 11-5 at JetLife Stadium. At 1 o'clock on Sunday, it will be the first time that Santonio Holmes, Jeremy Kerley, Stephen Hill, and Dustin Keller are all on the field at the same time. Plus, the debut of the top secret Tebow Wild Gator-Cat should make an impact. 

Prediction: Jets 20 Bills 13

UFC

I hope everyone took time out of their busy Labor Day weekend and made sure to order UFC 151 . It was one of the most exciting UFC shows of the year. The main event had an awesome finish when Dan Henderson unleashed an H-Bomb......

Oh wait, I forgot. It got canceled.

In an interesting turn of events, Frankie Edgar pulled the opposite of Jonny "The Chicken Bones" Jones when it was announced that Eric Koch was injured and unable to fight Jose Aldo at UFC 153 in October. "The Answer" stepped up and is the new #1 Contender to Aldo's Featherweight Championship. Edgar will be competing in his seventh straight title fight. The Toms River native's decision caused Dana White to tweet "I love me some Frankie Edgar". Not only is Edgar fighting arguably one of the best pound for pound guys in the sport on short notice, but he is doing it in Aldo's home of Brazil and in Frankie's debut at the 145 lb division. Aldo 11-0 in the UFC/WEC, and he hasn't lost since 2005. He's beaten a who's who of the lighter weight classes including Urijah Faber, Mike Brown, Kenny Florian, and Chad Mendes. 

This fight could be looked at as a win-win for both competitors. If Aldo wins it further cements his legacy as one of the best fighters in the sport by beating a respected former champion. If he loses it could re-motivate him (the way the loss to Matt Serra changed GSP), and the future re-match could be gigantic. If Edgar wins, he becomes only the third guy in UFC history to hold gold in two different weight classes, and the Featherweight Division could see a bigger spike in popularity. If Edgar loses a close hard-fought fight, he took the fight on short notice for the good of the company and will eventually get another chance after a couple more wins.

MLB

With all this excitement I forgot baseball season was still going on. The Mets, "THEY STINK!!!!", according to Mike Francesa. The Yankees though are doing their best impression of the team in Queens by sqaundering a 10 game lead in the AL East, and are now only a game up on Baltimore Since their ten game division lead on July 18th they are 19-24, averaging 4.4 runs/game (a half a run less per game from the first half of the season) while pitching to an ERA of 4.06 (their ERA was 3.72 in the first half). Here are the three of the main culprits in the Yankees collapse (with their stats since July 19th).

Ivan Nova: 1-3, 7.02 ERA 

Robinson Cano: .265, 16 RBI, 24 SO

Curtis Granderson: .195, 55 SO

You add to that the fact that Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira have both missed some time in that stretch and it's easy to see why the Bronx Bombers' bats have gone silent. With 28 games left this season (a four game series in Baltimore starting on Thursday is crucial) the Yanks have to try and keep their heads above water. It is even more important to win your division this season because the Wild Card team plays in a do or die game instead of getting a five-game series.  God only knows how chaotic this would be if George Steinbrenner were still alive.