Thursday, September 20, 2012

NFL Week 3 Picks

NFL

Last Week: 3-1-1
Season: 7-2-1
Lock of The Week: 0-2
HOME TEAM in Caps

1) Jets -3 over DOLPHINS

I hate do this, but the Jets are my Lock of the Week. See below for my game preview.

2) Bengals +4 over REDSKINS

So we know that the Redskins beat the Saints in Week 1, and should have beaten the Rams this Sunday. The Bengals got man-handled by a Ravens squad that could be one of the best in the league, and beat the Browns, who are one of the worst. The Redskins have a better offense, led by RG3, but their defense suffered two crippling injuries last week. I see both of these teams being pretty equal, but the Bengals getting 4 points is tempting.

3) COLTS +2.5 over Jaguars

When in doubt, take Andrew Luck over Blaine Gabbert. The Colts rookie signal-caller threw for 224 yards and 2 TD in his home debut against Minnesota. Blaine Gabbert threw for 53 yards, and his QB rating was 9.6! Jason Bay's batting average is higher than that. Do I need to say more?

4) Bills -3 over BROWNS

The best thing that could have happened to Buffalo was Fred Jackson's injury. CJ Spiller has saved some fantasy teams and the Bills by running for 292 yards and 3 TDs so far this season. The Bills dominated a bad Chiefs team after getting raked over the coals by the Jets in Week 1. Browns rookie RB Trent Richardson had a breakout game on Sunday running for 109 and a TD. After Richardson there isn't many positives about Cleveland. 

5) RAVENS -3 over Patriots

This is a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game. Baltimore is a really good home team, and their suffocating defense makes this a tough matchup for the Patsies. Tom Brady had an uncharacteristic bad game against Arizona, and will be without one of his favorite targets, Aaron Hernandez for at least a month.

Extra Point: Giants -1 over PANTHERS

Big Blue is now team Black and Blue with injuries to David Diehl, Ahmad Bradshaw, Hakeem Nicks, and Domenik Hixon. The Giants are going to need a young player, either Andre Brown, Rueben Randle, or David Wilson to come up big tonight. I'm still waiting for the signature Giants defense to step up, and I think it may come tonight. If the pass rush gets going then they could make Cam Newton's day a living hell. Just ask Michael Vick. The Giants secondary leaves a lot to be desired though, and Steve Smith and Brandon LaFell could have a good days against Corey Webster and the returning Prince Akanakmakmukamura if the pass rush isn't there. If this turns into a shootout, it could come down to who has the ball last.

Jets

The Jets played poorly against the Steelers, and luckily for them they have the doormats of the AFC East next on their schedule. Gang Green goes back to the spot where last season fell apart on New Years Day 2012. In Miami the Jets still had a prayer at the playoffs, but in-fighting found it's way onto the field and our season imploded. Hopefully we'll get a better results on Sunday.

When Jets Have the Ball

This has been the biggest question mark of this early season. What Jets offense is going to show up in Miami on Sunday? The Dolphins defense isn't the '85 Bears by any stretch of the imagination, but it seems likes for some reason this offense just has days where it can't move the football. I thought it was Brian Schottenheimer's fault, but the Rams are letting Sam Bradford air it out. So, it must be that the organization and head coach don't have any faith in their starting quarterback.

Rex wants a ground and pound offense, but the teams most talented runner is their backup quarterback. We heard so much about Tim Tebow all offseason that his lack of involvement (and vanilla playcalling when he's in) has been disappointing. Tebowmania started last season in Miami, and with the Gator fans in full force he may have a breakout game. I know that Tony Sparano wants to beat Miami, the team that fired him last year, and will try to dig deep into his bag of tricks. I'd like to see the team take the kid gloves off of Sanchez, especially with our defense who can survive a couple turnovers from the offense. If we don't put up at least 28 on Sunday I have serious doubts about the rest of the season.

When Dolphins Have the Ball

The Jets defense is steaming mad, and can't wait to take the field on Sunday. All indications are that Darelle Revis will be back, thus shoring up our secondary. Rex Ryan said to the media on Monday "Don't bet against us" when talking up the D. Miami's offensive line is weak, and the Jets should be able to rattle rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill with a steady pass rush of Aaron "Mayhem" Maybin and Quinton "Rampage" Coples. The Dolphins don't really have a great receiving threat. Reggie Bush is looking like the explosive player he did coming out of USC, and if Miami has any chance they need him to have a huge game.

Prediction: Jets 35 Dolphins 13
UFC



The UFC lost another card due to fighter injuries. This time thought, Dana White and Joe Silva are arguably giving Brazilians fans a better card at UFC 153. I agree with what Wrestling Observer Newsletter writer Dave Meltzer brought up, that hardcore UFC fans, who order every fight anyway, want to see fights between contenders and make up their base audience which is around 250,000 pay-per view buys.. On the other hand, the casual UFC fans buy shows to see stars and big feuds. When the  UFC ropes them in those are the shows that have over 500,000 buys. In this view, the fights are better for the casual viewer.

The card changed from a main event of Frankie Edgar vs Jose Aldo and a co-main of Rampage Jackson against Glover Teixeira to a main event of Anderson Silva against Stephan Bonner, and Co-main events of Big Nog vs Dave Herman and Glover Teixeira vs Fabio Maldonado. Anderson and Big Nog are legends in Brazil.

Injuries are now just something you have to get used to as a UFC fan, because I don't see there being a quick fix. It hurts fans who want to get tickets to live events, especially if you want to see a specific fighter and not the UFC brand, because the shows usually sell out the day they go on sale. Pay-per view buyers have the luxury of not committing to ordering a show until seconds before it starts.

Jon Jones finally steps into the Octagon on Saturday against Vitor Belfort at UFC 152. We all know how we got here, and I'm frankly sick of talking about it at this point. Here are my quick picks for this event:

I went 3-2 in my UFC 150 picks bringing my record to 11-10.

Jon Jones over Vitor Belfort by KO
Joe Benavidez over Demetrious Johnson by Decision
Brian Stann over Michael Bisping by KO
Matt Hamill over Roger Holett by Decision
Charles Oliveira over Cub Swanson by Submisson

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