Thursday, October 4, 2012

Week 5 Picks

NFL

Last Week 2-3
Season: 12-7-2
Lock of the Week 0-3-1
HOME TEAM in Caps

Week 4 was really one of the first weeks in the NFL season where everything went as expected. I wonder if the return of the regular refs brought back some normalcy to the league? Week 5 has some intriguing matchups as we head into bye-week part of the season.



1) Bears -5.5 over JAGUARS

Lock of the Week: The Bears defense showed their dominance against the Cowboys by forcing 5 turnovers. Matt Forte looks like he is healthy, and should have a field day against the Jaguars who are 30th in the league allowing 150.3 rushing yards/game.I don't see Mo-Jo being able to do much against the Bears 3rd ranked rush defense. That means the Jags are going to have to rely on Blaine Gabbert, who is probably going to have nightmares about this game for weeks to come.

2) PATRIOTS -6.5 over Broncos

We are going to see a familiar rivalry (Brady vs Manning), but this time Peyton is trading his Colts blue and white for Broncos navy and orange. The Patriots flicked a switch, and the offense took off in the second half of their game against Buffalo. Brandon Bolden is the newest name to come practically out of nowhere and into Belichick's offense. Denver's feeling good coming off a beatdown of the Raiders, but they get a taste of reality going against Brady's Pats. 



3) SAINTS -3.5 over Chargers

The Saints can't go 0-5, can they? Drew Brees always plays better in the comfort of the dome, especially when the lights are on in primetime. 

4) Eagles +3.5 over STEELERS

In the Battle of Pennsylvania, the Steelers are coming off a bye while the Eagles are coming off a big win against the reigning champion Giants. Pitt should be getting James Harrison, Troy Polamalu, and Rashard Mendenhall back. If the Eagles can play turnover-free football on the offensive side of the ball they should win this one against the aging Steelers. 

5) REDSKINS +3 over Falcons

Call me crazy, but I really like the Redskins in this game. RG3 has shown a lot of promise to fans down in D.C.. A mix of Griffin and Alfred Morris put the Redskins rushing offense 2nd overall, and they will be getting Pierre Garcon back to help the passing game. The Falcons are a great team themselves, with Matty Ice and his group of receiving threats. The Falcons, like the Saints, are much more dangerous at home in the turf, so that's an advantage for the Skins. I see this being a close high-scoring game and it could come down to who has the ball last.


Jets



Things aren't getting easier for the reeling Jets as the 4-0 Texans visit JetLife Stadium on a Monday Night battle. The Texans are ranked 2nd in the league in pass defense (182 ypg), and shouldn't have a problem quieting a Jets offense that is going to be without Santonio Holmes  for the rest of the season. Mark Sanchez has heard whispers all week long about how Tim Tebow should take over as the starting quarterback. Sanchez looked skittish last week against the 49ers pass rush, and is going to have to do considerably better this week. That's easier said than done though, with a possible starting receiver set of Chaz Schillens and Jeremy Kerley (why did we cut Patrick Turner?).



Darrelle Revis is really going to be missed in this game. Andre Johnson and Matt Schaub are going to happy not having to throw on Revis Island. In two career games against Revis, Johnson averaged 4 receptions for 33.5 yards per game. That is down considerably from his NFL record 78.9 yards per game in his career. Kyle Wilson needs to play better against Kevin Walter than he did against Mario Manningham. Wilson was lucky that Alex Smith overthrew Mario on a couple deep balls. The last thing our 31st ranked rush defense wanted to see next on their schedule was the 2-headed attack of Arian Foster and Ben Tate. Sione P'ouha has to show me something in this game. He hasn't come to play since getting his big contract in the offseason. 

I expect the Jets to come out with a fire if they have any heart in their body. I just don't think it's going to be enough. The Texans have too many weapons on both sides of the ball, and while I expect a competitive game, the Texans running backs will be too much to handle.

Texans 31 Jets 20

MLB



The Yankees got the job done by sweeping the Boston Red Sox this week, while the young Orioles lost 2 out of 3 to the Rays who were just playing through the rest of their schedule. The Yankees now have the advantage of resting up while the Orioles and Texas Rangers play a one game playoff on Friday night. The Bronx Bombers' first playoff game isn't until Sunday, and they won't know their opponent until Friday night.

The Yanks and O's split their 18 game season series, with the O's outscoring the Yankees 92-90. The Yankees won the season series against Texas 4-3, outscoring them 30-27. No matter who wins on Friday night it should be a close ALDS. Baltimore is dangerous because they are a young team who is hungry to get a ring, while Texas was one strike away from winning the World Series last year, and has come so close now two years in a row only to end in disappointment. I'm looking forward to Friday night.


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