Week 8 NFL Picks

NFL Picks: Hurricane Edition

Last Week: 3-0-2
Season: 22-10-4
Lock of the Week: 2-3-2

I can't believe that the NFL season is almost halfway over already, and the NBA season is starting next week! This has been a really crazy season so far, even in the parity-driven NFL. I CAN'T WAIT (Bart Scott voice) to see what the second half has in store. Let's get on to my Frankenstorm Week 8 picks.

1) EAGLES -1 over Falcons

Lock of the Week: One fact you need to know for this game is that Andy Reid is 13-0 all-time after a bye week. The Falcons are a much better team under the roof in Atlanta, and weather may be a factor on Sunday, with a wet weekend predicted for the East Coast. Usually in those types of games, the team that is better at pounding the rock will win. The Falcons rush offense is ranked 29th, and their run defense is ranked 28th. Michael Vick and Shady McCoy should be able to rack up a lot of fantasy points in this one.

2) Giants -1.5 over COWBOYS

Jerry's Palace has been a home for the Giants since it opened. The G-Men are 3-0 at Cowboys Stadium, and are just a better team than the Cowboys. You add the fact that Big Blue will be looking for some revenge after the 'Boys from Dallas ruined their Super Bowl 46 banner raising on Opening Day. I'll admit I was wrong, and the Giants are playing better this year than they were when they won the Super Bowl last season.

3) Redskins +4.5 over STEELERS

Is anybody really convinced that the Steelers are back after barely beating a bad Bengals team? Both of these teams have had injuries ravage their team, but for the most part have persevered. I just don't think that the older Steelers defense has the speed to compete against Robert Griffin. I expect the 'Skins to cover and win the game.

4) Saints +6 over BRONCOS

Everyone playing the Saints know what they're going to do, but it's still hard to stop them. New Orleans is 1st in the league in passing offense, but have the 32nd ranked run offense, 30th ranked pass defense, and 31st ranked run defense. The Broncos have not impressed me this season, as they've fallen behind double digits in 5 of their first six games. This game is in prime time because of Drew Brees and Peyton Manning, and I don't think they're going to disappoint. I'd take the Saints getting 6 almost every day, and parlay that with the over for a nice pay day.

5) Seahawks +1 over LIONS

The Lions are one of the more underachieving teams in the league this season, and Seattle is perhaps the most overachieving team. Calvin Johnson had 9 touchdowns at this point last season, but only has 1 this year (Madden Curse?). Despite having the 2nd ranked pass offense, Matthew Stafford is tied for 28th with only 5 touchdown passes... that's less than Brandon Weeden, Christian Ponder, and Blaine Gabbert!!! The Seahawks rely on a solid running game and good defense to beat their opponents, and I expect more of that here.

Jets-Dolphins

This Jets team is much different from the one that played Miami about a month ago. Season ending injuries to Santonio Holmes and Darrelle Revis should have put the Jets season to rest, but the opposite has happened. It seems like the younger guys on the team have rallied together, and despite going 1-3 in their last four games they look like an improved team.

Jets offense vs Dolphins defense

The Dolphins defense is stingy against the run, ranked 4th in the league, but their 28th ranked pass defense is susceptible to the big play. Mark Sanchez is coming off his best game of the season against the Patriots, and might have won over the confidence of the coaching staff. The return of a healthy Dustin Keller and an improving chemistry with Jeremy Kerley has Jets fans saying "Santonio who?". The offensive line is starting to gel, and the Jets rushing game is improving. However, they aren't doing a great job at pass protection, and with Cameron Wake and his 6.5 sacks already this season, they need to keep Mark Sanchez on his feet.

Dolphins offense vs Jets defense

Ryan Tannehill is starting to come into his own, and is a decent quarterback. Reggie Bush has been quieted since his hot start, and is only averaging 44 yards/game in the last 3 games. The Jets defense has not been as dominating this year as it has been in the past, but they are still a top 10 unit, even without Darrelle Revis. The run defense has been a liability without Sione Pouha. 

Prediction:

The game against the Patriots can have 1 of 2 effects on this game. Either the Jets use that as motivation, knowing they can compete with the elite in the AFC, or they will be deflated by losing in heartbreaking fashion to their biggest rival. I think Coach Rex is a great motivator, and I don't see the Jets folding going into their bye week. This will be a close game, but I think the Jets hang on to get back to .500.

Jets 23 Dolphins 17