Don't cry because it's over smile because it happened.
The 2019 NFL season begins to wind down, almost all of the playoff spots have been locked up, and now several teams are left playing for seeding. This makes gambling on Week 16 and 17 especially tough, since you need to see what is still motivating these players on teams that are out of the race. Vegas knows this as well, and you will see some inflated lines. I'm here to help you pick out the best spots to bet this week.
Texans -2 at Bucs - Kicking off the Saturday slate, is a great game to help you build your bankroll going into the rest of the weekend. Houston bounced back from their shocking loss to Drew Lock and the Broncos with a dominant performance against their division foes, the Titans. Despite the 24-21 final score, Houston dominated that game from bell to bell. Jameis Winston is having one of the strangest seasons in NFL history, and you never know if he's throwing an 80 yard bomb or will get strip sacked. This game will be a little different since he is without both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, take the Texans -2 and don't overthink it.
Bills +6.5 at Patriots - Bills Mafia locked up a playoff spot with a win over the Steelers, but need to win out and need the Pats to lose out to win the AFC East. New England, on the other hand, is staring down the barrel at having to play in the Wild Card round for the first time in a while. The first time these two teams met, it was a close, hard hitting defensive battle. Since then, the Patriots offense has sputtered as Father Time has possibly caught up with Brady. Buffalo should stay close enough to cover the number.
Jets +3 vs Steelers - The Steelers were dealt a tough blow with the loss to Buffalo at home Sunday night. Duck Hodges and Mason Rudolph have been the benefactors of the return of the Steel Curtain defense, as Pittsburgh has gone back to being a defense-first team. Lev Bell's honeymoon in New York was short, with rumors already swirling that Gang Green wants to trade the former Pro Bowler. I feel like Bell will want to show the Black and Yellow they made a mistake not paying him, and Gase will be happy to oblige with plenty of carries. It would also would be smart to avoid Darnold having to throw too much against a ball-hawking defense. The Jets still seem to be competing for Gase, and I see them playing spoiler Sunday.
Ravens -10 at Browns - Baltimore has won 10 straight after getting embarrassed at home 40-25 by these same Cleveland Browns. That was also the highlight of the Browns season, that has blown up in Freddie Kitchen's face. Lamar Jackson will avenge the loss and the Ravens roll.
Cowboys -2 at Eagles - This is a de facto playoff game, with the winner getting the NFC East crown. This has been a tale of two seasons for Dallas, who are 7-7 in spite of two 3-game losing streaks. The 'Boys are still the more talented team than Philly, and are 4-0 against their Divisional opponents this season, and Jason Garrett is 7-2 lifetime at the Linc. Carson Wentz has had a nightmare season this year, with seemingly every wide receiver going down at one point in the season. The Bird Gang won't have a Merry Christmas, and might be booing Santa Clause again after this one.
Chiefs -6 at Bears - The Chiefs are starting to get their mojo back as Tyreek Hill and Patrick Mahomes are getting healthy again. I've seen Mitch Trubisky too often in prime time games this season, and his interception at midfield last week ended all hope of the Bears making it back to the postseason. KC might also be playing for a bye if the Pats lose Saturday.
Packers +5.5 at Vikings - This isn't the same Packers team that we're used to, and I'm starting to think Rodgers is regretting chasing Mike McCarthy out the door for Matt LaFleur. Despite all that, Kirk Cousins is 0-8 on Monday and the Vikings might be without Dalvin Cook. This line seems to be a little too high, after the Vikings steamrolled the Chargers last week.
BONUS PICKS
Going rapid fire with some of my favorite Bowl picks up to next Saturday. I love Bowl season, as you really need to look into outside factors (motivation, coaching changes, player suspensions) almost as much as the X's and O's.
12/21 Boise State +2.5 v Washington
12/23 Marshall +17.5 v UCF
12/24 BYU -2 v Hawaii
12/26 Lousiana Tech +6 v Miami
12/27 UNC -4.5 v Temple
Wake Forest +150 v Michigan State
Oklahoma State +7 v Texas A&M
Iowa -2 v USC
12/28 Penn State -6.5 v Memphis
Iowa State +3.5 v Notre Dame
Clemson -2 v Ohio State - Clemson has been quietly been beating teams in the ACC as Trevor Lawrence has yet to lose in his college career. The Buckeyes were blown out 31-0 the last time they faced the Tigers in the Playoffs, and I'm going with Dabo Swinney to win it again.
Oklahoma +17.5 v LSU - I bought the 3.5 points on Pointsbet to drive the line up to 17.5 at -150. LSU and Heisman winner Joe Burrow will win this game, but I like Oklahoma with the backdoor cover.
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