The Notorious Return and Championship Sunday Predictions

Sports fans love a good redemption story, and Conor McGregor has a chance to write the first chapter tonight in Vegas at UFC 246. After winning nine of his first ten UFC fights in a 3 and half year span, and skyrocketing to superstardom, the Irishman has dealt with a lot of adversity both inside and outside the Octagon. After defeating Eddie Alvarez in UFC's debut event at MSG in November 2016, which was arguably one of his best performances, Conor has only fought twice. After losing to Floyd Mayweather in August 2017 in a boxing match, he lost to Khabib in October 2018 following an ugly feud.

While I agree, that McGregor let the fame and his partying ways get out of hand, I question the validity of the sexual assault accusations thrown his way. Say what you will about Dana White and the UFC brass, but they've had a history of acting swiftly against fighters accused of domestic violence. On top of that, do you really think ESPN, which is owned by Disney, didn't do their due diligence before this fight in the #MeToo era? 

The Conor that we're seeing now appears to be grown up and humbled by everything that has happened in the past three and half years. His interview with Ariel Helwani McGregor was much more subdued. He seems very focused on his training and is talking about his 2020 season, where he hopes to fight at least three times. Fighters are still lining up to call him out, hoping for a "red panty night".

Everything begins tonight with a bout against Donald "Cowboy" Cerrone. Cowboy has been fighting under the Zuffa banner since 2007, and owns the record for most wins, finishes, and bonuses in UFC history. The 36 year old was seeing a career resurgence before losing his last two fights to Tony Ferguson and Justin Gaethje. In spite of all his successes, Cerrone is 0-3 in championship fights, and was never able to get over the hump of taking out a top dog. Cerrone is the perfect opponent for a returning McGregor, as he also would rather take part in a firefight than a grappling match, and he has shown a history of struggling against southpaws.

While this is a very winnable fight for McGregor, it won't be a cakewalk. It is smart from a business standpoint to let the Irishman get his feet under him against a grizzly veteran before moving on to the elite of the lightweight and/or welterweight division. I feel like the Vegas odds are pretty fair at -295 for McGregor tonight.

Unfortunately, outside of the main event there isn't much to get too excited about tonight. Only one other fight on the main card,  the co-main of Raquel Pennington +111 and Holly Holm,  is between two top 15 ranked fighters. I personally feel like Holm is still overrated after her knockout win against Rousey, and Rocky offers some good value. In other notable action, Anthony Pettis is moving back down to lightweight in the pay-per view opener as a live +185 dog against Diego Ferreira. In the featured prelim bout, future women's flyweight star, Maycee Barber, 8-0 with 7 stoppages, is a -1,000 favorite against Roxanne Modafferi.

Titans +7 and Under 52.25 - Mike Vrabel followed a huge upset win over mentor Bill Bellichick by taking out the Super Bowl favorite Ravens. Meanwhile, Kansas City, who benefitted from a first round bye thanks to the Dolphins in Week 17, slept walked through the first quarter and still beat the Texans by 20. As unlikely as it seemed a few weeks ago, the Chiefs get to host the AFC Championship game in Arrowhead tomorrow. 

This game will one of two ways, either Tractorcito can get going against the Chiefs 26th ranked run defense while Tennessee controls the clock and limits how long has Mahomes has the ball. Or, the Chiefs get to an early lead and force Ryan Tannehill to beat them. The Titans have personally made me a  believer, and while I think the Chiefs still find a way to win, I'm taking the Titans getting a touchdown.

Chiefs 24 Titans 20

Packers +260 and Over 46.5 - On November 24th, the Niners gave Rodgers and the Packers a drubbing on National TV, 37-8. Now, the two teams will rematch in the NFC Championship Game after winning at home last weekend. This is very reminiscent to me of the 2011 Divisional Round game between the Jets and Patriots. Rex Ryan buried the game ball after an embarrassing Monday Night loss in the regular season and the Jets upset the Pats in Foxboro. 

I find it hard to believe that Rodgers and Matt LaFluer haven't been stewing about that loss for almost two months hoping to get their chance at revenge in January. I think we see a vintage Rodgers performance along with Davante Adams continuing his dominance of the past four weeks. If Green Bay can take the Niners off their offensive schedule and force Jimmy G to make plays late in the game they can win on Sunday, and getting us a Super Bowl matchup of Mahomes-Rodgers.

Packers 31 49ers 24