Week 3: Desperate Times for 0-2 Teams

NFL Season 7-5

Last Week 3-3

We had two tough breaks last week. The Bengals hit a backdoor cover after Cleveland scored too quickly on their last possession. Then, on Sunday there was a rollercoaster of emotions in the Panthers game. First, they hit the cover with 2 minutes left in the game, before giving up a 45 yard touchdown run to Leonard Fournette. Then, to add insult to injury, the Panthers final drive was stopped inside the Bucs 5 as time expired. 

One thing to keep in mind, Week 3 is historically a good week to bet 0-2 teams, as they are 28-11 ATS since 2014 when playing teams with a win already. You can tell me those teams are 50-0, and I still don't think I can place a wager on Adam Gase however.

Patriots -6 v Raiders

Cam Newton is looking like a superstar again in Bill Belichick's offense. The Vegas Raiders are 2-0, and have been looking much improved. However, for the past two decades, you never bet against the Pats coming off a loss, and I continue that approach here.

Texans +4 @ Steelers

Houston couldn't have had a tougher schedule to start the season, and I still believe in Deshaun Watson. The Steelers are 2-0, but have wins against the Broncos and Giants. I think JJ Watt makes a big play late in the game to win the Watt Bowl over TJ.

Bengals +6.5 @ Eagles

Hopefully the 10 day break is enough to rest Joe Burrow's arm after he was asked to throw 60 TIMES on Thursday. He's had some tough luck targeting AJ Green this season, and I see that turning around against a weak Eagles secondary.

Falcons -3.5 v Bears

This seems like a good bounce-back spot after an embarrassing loss to the Cowboys Sunday. I don't believe in Mitch and think Matty Ice makes enough plays to win. 

Vikings +2.5 v Titans

Trading Stefon Diggs couldn't have broken this team this much, could it? I think we see rookie Justin Jefferson involved a little more and Cousins doesn't throw 3 picks in a half again.

Cardinals -5.5 v Lions

If Kyler keeps this up, he will win the MVP this season. Nuk looks comfortable in this offense and they playing great football. The Lions defense is near the bottom of the league, and I can't see how they stay in this one.

Bonus Picks

We have two marquee prime time matchups this week, and I couldn't resist adding them to the card

Packer +3 @ Saints

Normally, this would be a buy low opportunity on the Saints, but I think it's fair to start wondering if Drew Brees is on his last legs in N'Awlins. The passing offense stalled without Michael Thomas and he'll be out again Sunday night as well. Aaron Rodgers playing like a man possessed after the Pack drafted Jordan Love back in April. 

Ravens -3.5 v Chiefs

This is a big prove me game for Harbaugh and the Ravens. This is their first big test of the early season, and they need to show the world that they are better than the team that lost in the Divisional Round last year.

On Saturday night, Costa will literally be in the cage, as undefeated Paulo Costa battles undefeated champion Israel Adesanya for the Middleweight Championship. In the co-main event, for Jon Jones' vacant Light Heavyweight title, Dominick Reyes battles Jan Blachowicz. I'm not really feeling the excitement for this card, especially coming off a stacked Fight Night card last weekend. 

The main event should be great, but Izzy's last defense against Yoel Romero has left a bad taste in everyone's mouth. The co-main still feels like a #1 Contenders fight to challenge Jon Jones, which isn't fair for Jan and Dominick, but it's hard to ignore the 205 lb elephant in the room. The 3 undercard fights don't really have much heat either.

October's UFC 254 is the stronger of the two PPVs during the second run of Fight Island shows, but it's hard not to feel disappointed we're not getting Tony Ferguson and Dustin Poirier as the co-main event. It's one of the biggest complaints I have with Dana White, is when he rags on his own fighters. 

Pick 5 Challenge 29-30 +$161

This was a tough card to pick winners since there were so many heavy favorites, and I don't like giving up a lot of chalk. I've had some success using a combo parlay, where you throw four heavy favorites in it and it makes up six 2-fight parlays, four 3-fight parlays, and one 4-fight parlay (Pointsbet calls it a Yankee) and $165 gives you $15 bets on all 11 parlay options. 

I think the odds are a little too high on Reyes after he came close to dethroning Jones, and I see value in Jan Blachowicz who will use his 6 years of UFC experience to cap off one of the best runs of his career. I think Izzy has heard the doubters and wants to prove he belongs at the top of the pound for pound rankings. I think he tires Costa down early and gets a finish in the championship rounds.

Ludovit Klein -130 

Zubaira Tukhugov -140

Sijara Eubanks +150

Jan Blachowicz +215

Israel Adesanya by KO/Submission +132

Week 2 - Short and Sweet

NFL Season 4-2

Last Week 4-2

After a good start to the season, we need to keep the wins coming. I'll be sipping some beers beachside this weekend, and won't have a chance to breakdown the picks, but wanted to get them out. Week 2 is a big overreaction week, and we're looking for those lines this week. 

Browns - 6 v Bengals (Thursday)

Giants +5.5 @ Bears

Colts -3 v Vikings

Eagles +1 v Rams

Panthers +9 @ Buccaneers

Raiders +5.5 v Saints (Monday)

NFL Week 1 - It All Begins... Again

 

It's fun betting on bubble basketball and the Yankees, but now the real meat and potatoes of a gambler's life begin. NFL Week 1 is here, and I will help guide you through the bad beats and trap lines all season long with a 6 pack of picks every week. Careful strapping on your face shield, these picks are hot and steamy.

NFL Season 0-0

Last Week 0-0

Redskins Football Team +5.5 v Eagles

A new era begins in Washington, with a new name (for now) and a very good coach in Riverboat Ron. I'm excited to see what Chase Young can do against an Eagles o-line that didn't do a great job protecting Carson Wentz last year. Dwayne Haskins and Terry McLaurin do enough to keep this a field goal game and I like the Football Team getting 5.5.

Falcons +2.5 v Seahawks

Atlanta spent this offseason shoring up their defense, and the addition of Todd Gurley can help ease the burden placed on Matty Ice to carry the offense. I feel like the Falcons offense is quicker on the home turf. Pete Carrol's teams tend to start of a little slower and I think Atlanta takes this one. 

Cardinals +6.5 v 49ers

The Super Bowl hangover is real. The Niners shouldn't be ashamed that they were one of many victims of Mahomes Magic last season, however teams historically haven't done as well coming off a Super Bowl loss. This is a big test early for second year pro Kyler Murray and his new shiny toy DeAndre Hopkins, and they keep this within a touchdown. 

Rams +2.5 v Cowboys

I feel like this is first time in a decade Dallas doesn't get an easy win against the Giants to start their season. Jared Goff and the Rams never got going last season after being a juggernaut in 2018. Sean McVay had an entire offseason to make adjustments and added rookie RB Cam Akers to replace an oft-injured Gurley. The strangeness of this offseason makes it a little more difficult for new head coaches and I see LA glowing under the lights here.

Steelers -6 @ Giants

This one is simple. Danny Turnovers against a hungry defense and the return of Big Ben in the black and yellow. Don't need to overthink it. 

Titans -2.5 @ Broncos

Mike Vrabel and the  Cinderella Titans added Clowney last week to their already strong defense up front, while Denver lost an important cog in stopping Derrick Henry, with Von Miller's season ending injury. I think Drew Lock and the Broncos will be improved this season, but it will take a little longer for Jerry Jeudy to get on board with his QB. 

Turn on the Jets

My expectations for the Jets this season aren't very high. After trading Jamal Adams and losing CJ Mosley due to concerns with the virus, Gregg Williams defense isn't looking as dominant as it was back in April. While we upgraded the offensive line to protect Sam, our decision to not bring in more receivers looks even more damning after injuries in camp weakened an already thin position. 

I like to look at the season in quarters when breaking down the schedule. Call me crazy, but I don't think it would be shocking to see an upset in Buffalo tomorrow. Jets and Bills games are never going to be mistaken for a Chiefs Ravens shootout, and the team who makes that one big play late typically wins. I can see Gang Green getting a win against the Colts or Broncos to start off 2-2.

The Chiefs and Cardinals should easily pick apart our secondary, but the Chargers game is winnable. In the interest of fairness, we'll split with Buffalo to get us at 3-5 at the midway point of the season. The third quarter of the season is where we can really gain some ground. I expect Tua to be starting for Miami by this point, and you don't know what trick Belichick has up his sleeve, but I can't see the Pats replicating their success this season. Best case scenario, I have the Jets at 6-6 going into the stretch.

To start the final quarter of the year, we are paid a visit by Jamal Adams and the Seahawks, in a game both teams have circled on their calendar. I expect the Rams and Browns to be much improved this season and we finish with a visit to Foxboro. Realistically this looks like 1-3, and the Jets finish the season in no man's land at 7-9.

While the playoffs aren't a realistic goal for this season, the most important thing is that we get some answers about what Sam Darnold is. He has shown that he's much better than Geno Smith and Mark Sanchez, but that's not a high pedestal. With quarterbacks getting paid $40 million plus, Joe Douglas needs to see if Sam is in that category in the next two seasons, or if we should build up the rest of the team and try again in the draft without the salary cap burden of a big money QB.

Pick 5 Challenge (27-27 +$305) 

Tonight's UFC card is just sort of there. Knock on wood, but at least it's a full 12 fight card less then 12 hours before the first fight. Next week is the appetizer of Woodley - Covington (plus Cowboy, Chimaev, and Johnny Walker) before the return to Fight Island and the main course of Izzy - Costa at UFC 253. 

Please don't place any real money on the picks this weekend...

UFC Vegas 9/12

Michelle Waterson +100

Ottman Azaitar +108

Roosevelt Roberts -120

Brok Weaver +280

Billy Quarantillo/Andrea Lee -132