Week 3: Desperate Times for 0-2 Teams

NFL Season 7-5

Last Week 3-3

We had two tough breaks last week. The Bengals hit a backdoor cover after Cleveland scored too quickly on their last possession. Then, on Sunday there was a rollercoaster of emotions in the Panthers game. First, they hit the cover with 2 minutes left in the game, before giving up a 45 yard touchdown run to Leonard Fournette. Then, to add insult to injury, the Panthers final drive was stopped inside the Bucs 5 as time expired. 

One thing to keep in mind, Week 3 is historically a good week to bet 0-2 teams, as they are 28-11 ATS since 2014 when playing teams with a win already. You can tell me those teams are 50-0, and I still don't think I can place a wager on Adam Gase however.

Patriots -6 v Raiders

Cam Newton is looking like a superstar again in Bill Belichick's offense. The Vegas Raiders are 2-0, and have been looking much improved. However, for the past two decades, you never bet against the Pats coming off a loss, and I continue that approach here.

Texans +4 @ Steelers

Houston couldn't have had a tougher schedule to start the season, and I still believe in Deshaun Watson. The Steelers are 2-0, but have wins against the Broncos and Giants. I think JJ Watt makes a big play late in the game to win the Watt Bowl over TJ.

Bengals +6.5 @ Eagles

Hopefully the 10 day break is enough to rest Joe Burrow's arm after he was asked to throw 60 TIMES on Thursday. He's had some tough luck targeting AJ Green this season, and I see that turning around against a weak Eagles secondary.

Falcons -3.5 v Bears

This seems like a good bounce-back spot after an embarrassing loss to the Cowboys Sunday. I don't believe in Mitch and think Matty Ice makes enough plays to win. 

Vikings +2.5 v Titans

Trading Stefon Diggs couldn't have broken this team this much, could it? I think we see rookie Justin Jefferson involved a little more and Cousins doesn't throw 3 picks in a half again.

Cardinals -5.5 v Lions

If Kyler keeps this up, he will win the MVP this season. Nuk looks comfortable in this offense and they playing great football. The Lions defense is near the bottom of the league, and I can't see how they stay in this one.

Bonus Picks

We have two marquee prime time matchups this week, and I couldn't resist adding them to the card

Packer +3 @ Saints

Normally, this would be a buy low opportunity on the Saints, but I think it's fair to start wondering if Drew Brees is on his last legs in N'Awlins. The passing offense stalled without Michael Thomas and he'll be out again Sunday night as well. Aaron Rodgers playing like a man possessed after the Pack drafted Jordan Love back in April. 

Ravens -3.5 v Chiefs

This is a big prove me game for Harbaugh and the Ravens. This is their first big test of the early season, and they need to show the world that they are better than the team that lost in the Divisional Round last year.

On Saturday night, Costa will literally be in the cage, as undefeated Paulo Costa battles undefeated champion Israel Adesanya for the Middleweight Championship. In the co-main event, for Jon Jones' vacant Light Heavyweight title, Dominick Reyes battles Jan Blachowicz. I'm not really feeling the excitement for this card, especially coming off a stacked Fight Night card last weekend. 

The main event should be great, but Izzy's last defense against Yoel Romero has left a bad taste in everyone's mouth. The co-main still feels like a #1 Contenders fight to challenge Jon Jones, which isn't fair for Jan and Dominick, but it's hard to ignore the 205 lb elephant in the room. The 3 undercard fights don't really have much heat either.

October's UFC 254 is the stronger of the two PPVs during the second run of Fight Island shows, but it's hard not to feel disappointed we're not getting Tony Ferguson and Dustin Poirier as the co-main event. It's one of the biggest complaints I have with Dana White, is when he rags on his own fighters. 

Pick 5 Challenge 29-30 +$161

This was a tough card to pick winners since there were so many heavy favorites, and I don't like giving up a lot of chalk. I've had some success using a combo parlay, where you throw four heavy favorites in it and it makes up six 2-fight parlays, four 3-fight parlays, and one 4-fight parlay (Pointsbet calls it a Yankee) and $165 gives you $15 bets on all 11 parlay options. 

I think the odds are a little too high on Reyes after he came close to dethroning Jones, and I see value in Jan Blachowicz who will use his 6 years of UFC experience to cap off one of the best runs of his career. I think Izzy has heard the doubters and wants to prove he belongs at the top of the pound for pound rankings. I think he tires Costa down early and gets a finish in the championship rounds.

Ludovit Klein -130 

Zubaira Tukhugov -140

Sijara Eubanks +150

Jan Blachowicz +215

Israel Adesanya by KO/Submission +132