It's fun betting on bubble basketball and the Yankees, but now the real meat and potatoes of a gambler's life begin. NFL Week 1 is here, and I will help guide you through the bad beats and trap lines all season long with a 6 pack of picks every week. Careful strapping on your face shield, these picks are hot and steamy.
NFL Season 0-0
Last Week 0-0
Redskins Football Team +5.5 v Eagles
A new era begins in Washington, with a new name (for now) and a very good coach in Riverboat Ron. I'm excited to see what Chase Young can do against an Eagles o-line that didn't do a great job protecting Carson Wentz last year. Dwayne Haskins and Terry McLaurin do enough to keep this a field goal game and I like the Football Team getting 5.5.
Falcons +2.5 v Seahawks
Atlanta spent this offseason shoring up their defense, and the addition of Todd Gurley can help ease the burden placed on Matty Ice to carry the offense. I feel like the Falcons offense is quicker on the home turf. Pete Carrol's teams tend to start of a little slower and I think Atlanta takes this one.
Cardinals +6.5 v 49ers
The Super Bowl hangover is real. The Niners shouldn't be ashamed that they were one of many victims of Mahomes Magic last season, however teams historically haven't done as well coming off a Super Bowl loss. This is a big test early for second year pro Kyler Murray and his new shiny toy DeAndre Hopkins, and they keep this within a touchdown.
Rams +2.5 v Cowboys
I feel like this is first time in a decade Dallas doesn't get an easy win against the Giants to start their season. Jared Goff and the Rams never got going last season after being a juggernaut in 2018. Sean McVay had an entire offseason to make adjustments and added rookie RB Cam Akers to replace an oft-injured Gurley. The strangeness of this offseason makes it a little more difficult for new head coaches and I see LA glowing under the lights here.
Steelers -6 @ Giants
This one is simple. Danny Turnovers against a hungry defense and the return of Big Ben in the black and yellow. Don't need to overthink it.
Titans -2.5 @ Broncos
Mike Vrabel and the Cinderella Titans added Clowney last week to their already strong defense up front, while Denver lost an important cog in stopping Derrick Henry, with Von Miller's season ending injury. I think Drew Lock and the Broncos will be improved this season, but it will take a little longer for Jerry Jeudy to get on board with his QB.
Turn on the Jets
My expectations for the Jets this season aren't very high. After trading Jamal Adams and losing CJ Mosley due to concerns with the virus, Gregg Williams defense isn't looking as dominant as it was back in April. While we upgraded the offensive line to protect Sam, our decision to not bring in more receivers looks even more damning after injuries in camp weakened an already thin position.
I like to look at the season in quarters when breaking down the schedule. Call me crazy, but I don't think it would be shocking to see an upset in Buffalo tomorrow. Jets and Bills games are never going to be mistaken for a Chiefs Ravens shootout, and the team who makes that one big play late typically wins. I can see Gang Green getting a win against the Colts or Broncos to start off 2-2.
The Chiefs and Cardinals should easily pick apart our secondary, but the Chargers game is winnable. In the interest of fairness, we'll split with Buffalo to get us at 3-5 at the midway point of the season. The third quarter of the season is where we can really gain some ground. I expect Tua to be starting for Miami by this point, and you don't know what trick Belichick has up his sleeve, but I can't see the Pats replicating their success this season. Best case scenario, I have the Jets at 6-6 going into the stretch.
To start the final quarter of the year, we are paid a visit by Jamal Adams and the Seahawks, in a game both teams have circled on their calendar. I expect the Rams and Browns to be much improved this season and we finish with a visit to Foxboro. Realistically this looks like 1-3, and the Jets finish the season in no man's land at 7-9.
While the playoffs aren't a realistic goal for this season, the most important thing is that we get some answers about what Sam Darnold is. He has shown that he's much better than Geno Smith and Mark Sanchez, but that's not a high pedestal. With quarterbacks getting paid $40 million plus, Joe Douglas needs to see if Sam is in that category in the next two seasons, or if we should build up the rest of the team and try again in the draft without the salary cap burden of a big money QB.
Pick 5 Challenge (27-27 +$305)
Tonight's UFC card is just sort of there. Knock on wood, but at least it's a full 12 fight card less then 12 hours before the first fight. Next week is the appetizer of Woodley - Covington (plus Cowboy, Chimaev, and Johnny Walker) before the return to Fight Island and the main course of Izzy - Costa at UFC 253.
Please don't place any real money on the picks this weekend...
UFC Vegas 9/12
Michelle Waterson +100
Ottman Azaitar +108
Roosevelt Roberts -120
Brok Weaver +280
Billy Quarantillo/Andrea Lee -132
No comments:
Post a Comment