Week 3: Desperate Times for 0-2 Teams

NFL Season 7-5

Last Week 3-3

We had two tough breaks last week. The Bengals hit a backdoor cover after Cleveland scored too quickly on their last possession. Then, on Sunday there was a rollercoaster of emotions in the Panthers game. First, they hit the cover with 2 minutes left in the game, before giving up a 45 yard touchdown run to Leonard Fournette. Then, to add insult to injury, the Panthers final drive was stopped inside the Bucs 5 as time expired. 

One thing to keep in mind, Week 3 is historically a good week to bet 0-2 teams, as they are 28-11 ATS since 2014 when playing teams with a win already. You can tell me those teams are 50-0, and I still don't think I can place a wager on Adam Gase however.

Patriots -6 v Raiders

Cam Newton is looking like a superstar again in Bill Belichick's offense. The Vegas Raiders are 2-0, and have been looking much improved. However, for the past two decades, you never bet against the Pats coming off a loss, and I continue that approach here.

Texans +4 @ Steelers

Houston couldn't have had a tougher schedule to start the season, and I still believe in Deshaun Watson. The Steelers are 2-0, but have wins against the Broncos and Giants. I think JJ Watt makes a big play late in the game to win the Watt Bowl over TJ.

Bengals +6.5 @ Eagles

Hopefully the 10 day break is enough to rest Joe Burrow's arm after he was asked to throw 60 TIMES on Thursday. He's had some tough luck targeting AJ Green this season, and I see that turning around against a weak Eagles secondary.

Falcons -3.5 v Bears

This seems like a good bounce-back spot after an embarrassing loss to the Cowboys Sunday. I don't believe in Mitch and think Matty Ice makes enough plays to win. 

Vikings +2.5 v Titans

Trading Stefon Diggs couldn't have broken this team this much, could it? I think we see rookie Justin Jefferson involved a little more and Cousins doesn't throw 3 picks in a half again.

Cardinals -5.5 v Lions

If Kyler keeps this up, he will win the MVP this season. Nuk looks comfortable in this offense and they playing great football. The Lions defense is near the bottom of the league, and I can't see how they stay in this one.

Bonus Picks

We have two marquee prime time matchups this week, and I couldn't resist adding them to the card

Packer +3 @ Saints

Normally, this would be a buy low opportunity on the Saints, but I think it's fair to start wondering if Drew Brees is on his last legs in N'Awlins. The passing offense stalled without Michael Thomas and he'll be out again Sunday night as well. Aaron Rodgers playing like a man possessed after the Pack drafted Jordan Love back in April. 

Ravens -3.5 v Chiefs

This is a big prove me game for Harbaugh and the Ravens. This is their first big test of the early season, and they need to show the world that they are better than the team that lost in the Divisional Round last year.

On Saturday night, Costa will literally be in the cage, as undefeated Paulo Costa battles undefeated champion Israel Adesanya for the Middleweight Championship. In the co-main event, for Jon Jones' vacant Light Heavyweight title, Dominick Reyes battles Jan Blachowicz. I'm not really feeling the excitement for this card, especially coming off a stacked Fight Night card last weekend. 

The main event should be great, but Izzy's last defense against Yoel Romero has left a bad taste in everyone's mouth. The co-main still feels like a #1 Contenders fight to challenge Jon Jones, which isn't fair for Jan and Dominick, but it's hard to ignore the 205 lb elephant in the room. The 3 undercard fights don't really have much heat either.

October's UFC 254 is the stronger of the two PPVs during the second run of Fight Island shows, but it's hard not to feel disappointed we're not getting Tony Ferguson and Dustin Poirier as the co-main event. It's one of the biggest complaints I have with Dana White, is when he rags on his own fighters. 

Pick 5 Challenge 29-30 +$161

This was a tough card to pick winners since there were so many heavy favorites, and I don't like giving up a lot of chalk. I've had some success using a combo parlay, where you throw four heavy favorites in it and it makes up six 2-fight parlays, four 3-fight parlays, and one 4-fight parlay (Pointsbet calls it a Yankee) and $165 gives you $15 bets on all 11 parlay options. 

I think the odds are a little too high on Reyes after he came close to dethroning Jones, and I see value in Jan Blachowicz who will use his 6 years of UFC experience to cap off one of the best runs of his career. I think Izzy has heard the doubters and wants to prove he belongs at the top of the pound for pound rankings. I think he tires Costa down early and gets a finish in the championship rounds.

Ludovit Klein -130 

Zubaira Tukhugov -140

Sijara Eubanks +150

Jan Blachowicz +215

Israel Adesanya by KO/Submission +132

Week 2 - Short and Sweet

NFL Season 4-2

Last Week 4-2

After a good start to the season, we need to keep the wins coming. I'll be sipping some beers beachside this weekend, and won't have a chance to breakdown the picks, but wanted to get them out. Week 2 is a big overreaction week, and we're looking for those lines this week. 

Browns - 6 v Bengals (Thursday)

Giants +5.5 @ Bears

Colts -3 v Vikings

Eagles +1 v Rams

Panthers +9 @ Buccaneers

Raiders +5.5 v Saints (Monday)

NFL Week 1 - It All Begins... Again

 

It's fun betting on bubble basketball and the Yankees, but now the real meat and potatoes of a gambler's life begin. NFL Week 1 is here, and I will help guide you through the bad beats and trap lines all season long with a 6 pack of picks every week. Careful strapping on your face shield, these picks are hot and steamy.

NFL Season 0-0

Last Week 0-0

Redskins Football Team +5.5 v Eagles

A new era begins in Washington, with a new name (for now) and a very good coach in Riverboat Ron. I'm excited to see what Chase Young can do against an Eagles o-line that didn't do a great job protecting Carson Wentz last year. Dwayne Haskins and Terry McLaurin do enough to keep this a field goal game and I like the Football Team getting 5.5.

Falcons +2.5 v Seahawks

Atlanta spent this offseason shoring up their defense, and the addition of Todd Gurley can help ease the burden placed on Matty Ice to carry the offense. I feel like the Falcons offense is quicker on the home turf. Pete Carrol's teams tend to start of a little slower and I think Atlanta takes this one. 

Cardinals +6.5 v 49ers

The Super Bowl hangover is real. The Niners shouldn't be ashamed that they were one of many victims of Mahomes Magic last season, however teams historically haven't done as well coming off a Super Bowl loss. This is a big test early for second year pro Kyler Murray and his new shiny toy DeAndre Hopkins, and they keep this within a touchdown. 

Rams +2.5 v Cowboys

I feel like this is first time in a decade Dallas doesn't get an easy win against the Giants to start their season. Jared Goff and the Rams never got going last season after being a juggernaut in 2018. Sean McVay had an entire offseason to make adjustments and added rookie RB Cam Akers to replace an oft-injured Gurley. The strangeness of this offseason makes it a little more difficult for new head coaches and I see LA glowing under the lights here.

Steelers -6 @ Giants

This one is simple. Danny Turnovers against a hungry defense and the return of Big Ben in the black and yellow. Don't need to overthink it. 

Titans -2.5 @ Broncos

Mike Vrabel and the  Cinderella Titans added Clowney last week to their already strong defense up front, while Denver lost an important cog in stopping Derrick Henry, with Von Miller's season ending injury. I think Drew Lock and the Broncos will be improved this season, but it will take a little longer for Jerry Jeudy to get on board with his QB. 

Turn on the Jets

My expectations for the Jets this season aren't very high. After trading Jamal Adams and losing CJ Mosley due to concerns with the virus, Gregg Williams defense isn't looking as dominant as it was back in April. While we upgraded the offensive line to protect Sam, our decision to not bring in more receivers looks even more damning after injuries in camp weakened an already thin position. 

I like to look at the season in quarters when breaking down the schedule. Call me crazy, but I don't think it would be shocking to see an upset in Buffalo tomorrow. Jets and Bills games are never going to be mistaken for a Chiefs Ravens shootout, and the team who makes that one big play late typically wins. I can see Gang Green getting a win against the Colts or Broncos to start off 2-2.

The Chiefs and Cardinals should easily pick apart our secondary, but the Chargers game is winnable. In the interest of fairness, we'll split with Buffalo to get us at 3-5 at the midway point of the season. The third quarter of the season is where we can really gain some ground. I expect Tua to be starting for Miami by this point, and you don't know what trick Belichick has up his sleeve, but I can't see the Pats replicating their success this season. Best case scenario, I have the Jets at 6-6 going into the stretch.

To start the final quarter of the year, we are paid a visit by Jamal Adams and the Seahawks, in a game both teams have circled on their calendar. I expect the Rams and Browns to be much improved this season and we finish with a visit to Foxboro. Realistically this looks like 1-3, and the Jets finish the season in no man's land at 7-9.

While the playoffs aren't a realistic goal for this season, the most important thing is that we get some answers about what Sam Darnold is. He has shown that he's much better than Geno Smith and Mark Sanchez, but that's not a high pedestal. With quarterbacks getting paid $40 million plus, Joe Douglas needs to see if Sam is in that category in the next two seasons, or if we should build up the rest of the team and try again in the draft without the salary cap burden of a big money QB.

Pick 5 Challenge (27-27 +$305) 

Tonight's UFC card is just sort of there. Knock on wood, but at least it's a full 12 fight card less then 12 hours before the first fight. Next week is the appetizer of Woodley - Covington (plus Cowboy, Chimaev, and Johnny Walker) before the return to Fight Island and the main course of Izzy - Costa at UFC 253. 

Please don't place any real money on the picks this weekend...

UFC Vegas 9/12

Michelle Waterson +100

Ottman Azaitar +108

Roosevelt Roberts -120

Brok Weaver +280

Billy Quarantillo/Andrea Lee -132

The Heavyweight GOAT?

 

Tonight's UFC 252 card is headlined by the rubber fight in the trilogy between Daniel Cormier and Stipe Miocic. DC won by knockout in the first round of their first fight, in July 2018, and Miocic returned the favor by knocking DC out in the fourth round in August 2019 after landing some big body shots later in the fight. These two men have been training to beat each other for two whole years, and the culmination is being tagged as who will be the GOAT in the Heavyweight division. However, this fight doesn't really have the typical big fight feel.

One theory I have is that the hardcore or casual MMA fan both have different reasons to not get excited about tonight's matchup. For the hardcore fans, the long wait for the final fight in the trilogy has soured the matchup. The heavyweight strap was tied up for over two years as a list of contenders and more intriguing matchups began building. Francis Ngannou is looking like a monster again winning four straight fights in a total of 2:42 of ring time. Also, there's always the added drama of if Jon Jones will look to become a champ champ and move up to the division. 

I personally don't believe the winner of this fight becomes GOAT. Cormier is just 4-1 in his UFC career in the division, and while you can't blame him for the timing, Stipe never had to defeat a dominant champion like Cain Velasquez. The Greatest Of All Time, is an ambiguous title, but the nature of the beast of being a heavyweight champ in UFC is that no one has really held the belt long enough to be a GOAT. In all of MMA, no one comes close to Fedor, who never fought for the promotion.

Casual fans don't seem interested in the fight because there isn't any manufactured bad blood and trash talk between the two men. Stipe is a volunteer fire fighter and all around badass, but he doesn't have the charisma needed to reach the next level. Cormier, who is the opposite, and can talk a good game, is still stained by his two losses to Jon Jones in some fans' eyes. DC respects Miocic, and this is more of a professional rivalry than personal. 

When it comes to the X's and O's of the fight, you can make a good case for both men. Miocic is the bigger and younger fighter. He's 5" taller and has a 7 1/2" reach advantage. Stipe also is more heavy handed with 15 career wins by knockout. Meanwhile, Cormier is an NCAA champion and Olympic wrestler. During their four round fight at UFC 241, DC was only able to take Miocic down once in three attempts. Despite that, Cormier landed 162 strikes to Miocic's dome, while Stipe attacked DC's body, landing 27 of 30 attempts.

If Miocic thinks he can eat DC's striking and survive his early onslaught of wrestling he can tire out the contender and turn the tides later in the fight again. I personally don't see that happening. Cormier is a very prideful man and he's been talking all week about how this is a legacy fight for him. As great as his career has been, he lost twice to Jones, won bronze at the Olympics in 2004 and had a weight cutting issue in 2008. I'm a believer in a storybook ending, and I see Cormier walking away from the sport as champ.

In the co-main event, the Sugar Show looks to continue his McGregor like run against Chito Vera. Vera is a step up in competition for the 25-year old phenom, and will be his toughest competition to date in the Octagon. The 27-year old "Chito", is 9-7 in the UFC and has yet to taste defeat by knockout or submission. Sugar has shown in the past that he starts to slow down late in the 2nd round, but he has had over two more years of training since those fights. I think the star train keeps rolling for O'Malley tonight.

JDS, coming off two losses by knockout facing Jairzinho Rozenstruik in another heavyweight banger. This is a good test for the younger fighter who has struggled in his last two contests. Rounding out the pay-per view is wrestling machine Merab Dvalishvili taking on Jon Dodson. Dodson is a gate keeper in the Flyweight division, but has gone 4-5 in his last nine fights. This is a great test to see where Merab, the Longo-Serra, product stands.

While this isn't the flashiest PPV UFC has held, there are enough interesting matchups and storylines to make for a great fight card. 

Pick 5 Challenge (25-25 +$279) Updated 8/28

Check back here in the coming weeks for my Fight Night Predictions. I will say I'm starting to feel a little nervous about Frankie Edgar next week. I still love the guy, but the damage he took during his 13-year UFC career is catching up to him, with his first two career knockout losses occurring in his last four fights. 

UFC 252 (2-3 -$10)

Daniel Cormier -115

Sean O'Malley by KO/TKO +175

Jair Rozenstruik -130

Virna Jandiroba by KO/Submission +190

Jim Miller +115

UFC 8/29 (2-2 +$26)

Anthony Smith +222

Robbie Lawler +205

Ion Cutelaba +260

Maki Pitolo +106

Polyana Viana +120

Adams Unloads on Clueless Joe

Just when I thought you couldn’t be any dumber you do something like this... and totally redeem yourself.

Jamal Adams situation with the Jets is nothing short of a disaster, but after his shoot interview with Manish Mehta yesterday, the safety has me rooting for him again. Adams described Joe Douglas as the bumbling fool that he is. Too bad Adams wasn’t an offensive lineman since the GMs wet dream of having a 53 man roster of only lineman is close to coming true.

In the interview Adams shares his thoughts on Douglas “If they would have just simply said, ‘You know what, Jamal — we’re not going to look to pay you this year, we want to keep adding players — I would have respected that more, I would say, ‘You know what? I respect it. As a man, I get it. I understand it’s a business.’.” He continues “And Why would Joe come out and say, ‘We want to make Jamal a Jet for life?’ Why would you say that and then not even give me an offer?... Don’t B.S. me. I’m a straightforward guy. You don’t have to B.S. me, because I’m going to keep it honest.”

As well as Adam Gase “I don’t feel like he’s the right leader for this organization to reach the Promised Land,” Adams said. “As a leader, what really bothers me is that he doesn’t have a relationship with everybody in the building. At the end of the day, he doesn’t address the team,” Adams added, “If there’s a problem in the locker room, he lets another coach address the team. If we’re playing sh---y and we’re losing, he doesn’t address the entire team as a group at halftime. He’ll walk out of the locker room and let another coach handle it.”

The Jets roster had a lot of holes going into the offseason and Douglas buried his head up his ass and just concentrated on using all our assets to fix the o-line. He alienated the franchise’s second most important piece aside from Sam and I think showed the rest of the team he can’t be trusted. I already was on the fence about Douglas when he didn’t show any effort to bring back Robby Anderson earlier in free agency in spite of his great chemistry with Darnold.

Regardless of where you fall in this situation, these are the facts of where both sides are as of today. Jamal Adams is under contract for 2 more years with the Jets. He can get franchised for two more years after that and still not makes as much as he’s looking for since Safety isn’t a premium position in the NFL. If he doesn’t want to play for the Jets he can sit out and continue to lose money. After his comments in the media it would be awkward if he just shows up to camp next week like nothing happened.

The Jets and Joe Douglas are also in a no win position also. Instead of handling things behind closed doors, the GM will eat his words saying he wanted Adams to be “a Jet for life” giving the expectation that the contract extension was imminent. If we had no intention of signing Adams then we should have traded him before the draft. Now teams around the league know the Jets will need to get rid of him and will be lowballing offers. Also, you’d have to think Jamal’s continued outbursts may also make teams wary of bringing him onboard.

While I sort of respect Adams going full Costanza, maybe using Namath’s jersey as a napkin at B Dubs or dragging the Lombardi Trophy down Route 3, until this situation is resolved it will be a huge distraction for the rest of the team. Douglas needs to act swiftly and take a stand before camp begins next week or this cancer can kill the 2020 season before it begins.

Pick 5 Challenge (18-22 -$416)

Tonight's card is the fourth and final scheduled card during this first run at Fight Island. All things considered it has been an enormous success for the UFC, as Dana and company expect to revisit Yas Island again in the near future. The main event is for a possible title shot against the winner of Adesanya and Costa at UFC 253 in September. Bobby Knuckles should win tonight if he's there mentally. Till is coming off a spilt decision win against Kelvin Gastelum, breaking a two fight skid. Whittaker is looking to get his belt back after Adesanya broke his eight fight winning streak at middleweight.

Not much can be said about Shogun and Lil Nog's trilogy that started 15 years ago in Pride. We are even 5 years removed from the rematch at UFC 190, and nothing makes me think that Minotouro can get his first win against Rua here. This can be the last fight in their careers for both of these legends. Meanwhile, Alexander Gustafsson has returned from a Francesa like retirement to move up to heavyweight to battle former champ Fabricio Werdum. La Cavalo looked sluggish at UFC 249 in May following a two year PED suspension, but the Swede may be overmatched here by the BJJ blackbelt. I'll take the +260 with Werdum as a great value.

Robert Whittaker -135
Shogun Rua -195
Fabricio Werdum +260
Carla Esparza +145
Paul Craig -135
(5-0 +$705)

Fight Island is Real and it’s Spectacular

Dana White continues to show people like that stupid idiot Fauci, who wants everything fun to be cancelled, to stop doubting the UFC. People thought White had gone mad when he brought up Fight Island in April, but tonight we get our tiki torches and our Jimmy Buffet playlist ready as UFC 251 kicks off a string of 4 shows this month from Yas Island. Granted Abu Dhabi isn’t some tropical location like people had in mind, but we have to give the UFC some creative license. It sounds like the organization is planning on alternating between Vegas and Fight Island for the foreseeable future.

UFC 251 took a step back before taking two huge steps forward last week. The scheduled main event of Kamaru Usman and Gilbert Burns was cancelled last Friday when the challenger tested positive for COVID. Instead, Dana resurrected Street Jesus and Jorge Masvidal is looking to baptize Marty Fakenewsman.

Kamaru Usman is the superior wrestler, but I think the 35-year old Masvidal is on a magical run. His violent stoppages of Darren Till, Ben Askren, and Nate Diaz last year remind me of the career resurgeance Michael Bisping had before his upset of Luke Rockhold to get gold for the first time in 2016. Masvidal has the advantage that every round has to start with both men standing and I think one of Gamebred's shots will turn Usman's lights out.

The co-main event is a rematch of UFC 245's Featherweight Title between Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway. December feels like 5 years ago at this point. Volkanovski used leg kicks to chop down and keep the Hawaiian at bay ending his 14 fight win-streak at 145 pounds. I think Max is just too good of a fighter to not make the necessary adjustments to win tonight. At just 28, Blessed is still in the prime of his career and he'll regain his crown.

The feature fight is also for a strap, as Petr Yan and Jose Aldo battle for the vacant Bantamweight title that Henry Cejudo gave up when he retired. Despite a strong showing in his debut in the weight class, Aldo lost a split decision to Marlon Moraes, but was gifted a title shot at UFC 250, originally scheduled for his native Brazil. After corona shook everything up, Dana still felt like the owed the veteran a title shot.

Petr Yan is 6-0 in the UFC after making quick work of Urijah Faber at UFC 245. While Aldo will be his toughest task to date, Yan has been a buzzsaw and is a complete MMA fighter. Bantamweight is the most exciting division in the sport with the likes of Aljo Sterling, Sean O'Malley, Cody Gardbrandt and the soon to be debuting Frankie Edgar (still disappointed UFC didn't find a replacement for his fight on Wednesday)

The women's division is the star of the first two fights on the PPV. Rose Namjunas and Jessica Andrade are rematching from their title fight in May of last year. Rose was picking Andrade apart when she was in the wrong position on a slam that knocked her out. Andrade then lost the title to Weili Zhang in her first defense. From what I've heard in pre-fight interviews Rose is focused and looking to avenge the loss. A win should put her back in title contention. Paige Van Zant is on the last fight of her contract and rumored to be on her way out of the UFC and beginning a career in Belator where her husband fights. UFC feels like this can be a chance at a star making performance for Amanda Ribas against the bigger name, and Vegas agrees.

Pick 5 Challenge (18-22 -$416) Updated 7/25

My luck is turning back around after a shaky start going 4-1 in the last card. I'll update this page with the rest of my picks for the Fight Night cards after doing some more research. Not going to lie, there are some donks on those cards.

UFC 251 (3-2 +$104)

Jorge Masvidal +195

Max Holloway +175

Petr Yan by KO/Submission +104

Rose Namajunas -210

Marcin Tybura -115

UFC Fight Night 7/15 (1-4 -$420)

Ricardo Ramos -165

Andreas Michalidis +145

Molly McCann -155

Tim Elliott -140

Cody Stamman +115

UFC Fight Night 7/18 (2-3 -$125)

Joe Benavidez +175

Kelvin Gastelum -130

Mark Diakiese -160

Arianne Lipski -125

Askar Askarov +165

Showcase Showoff part 1

This blog is a changeup from the usual fight and sports talk. Since there aren't any other sports aside UFC to comment on, I'm going to start a series of blogs showcasing my sports card collection. I picked the hobby back up, like many, during quarantine, and wanted to share what I've amassed here. In part one, I'll be showcasing my favorite Yankee and Jet cards.

Pick 5 Challenge (8-12 -$295)

I hit the last three fights at UFC 250 to bring us a $20 profit. Hope to keep chipping away (wassat) at that tonight's ESPN card. I think Volkov can fight smart tonight and try testing Blaydes' gas tank in the 5 round main event. The odds were too good to pass up.

Lauren Murphy -110

Gillian Robertson -125

Belal Muhammed -130

Josh Emmet +120

Alexander Volkov +310